Former prime minister Jean Chrétien's presence last week on the Hill revived some happy memories of the not-so-distant Liberal past, along with today's difficulties and concerns for the years to come.
But Chrétien brought with him a solution for the future: a coalition with the NDP. "I felt almost sorry for Michael Ignatieff and the way he was marginalized during the ceremony," an MP told me after the event. In fact, the entire ceremony was dominated by the controlling presence of Chrétien, by the intervention of Prime Minister Stephen Harper who rose to the occasion, and by the front-row presence of NDP Leader Jack Layton, and former legendary NDP leader Ed Broadbent. In fact, Chrétien spoke at length about his relationship with them and with Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe, while he mentioned Ignatieff only formally.
There is no doubt that Chrétien, the last emperor of the once powerful Liberal empire, is moving towards the future while completely bypassing the present. Chrétien, like many other leaders, believes that this is the time to think seriously about a coalition with the NDP in order to have sufficient manpower to challenge the new Conservative Party. This means that for Chrétien two things have happened in the last few years that the Liberals will not be able to overcome.
First, he assumes that the move towards the centre operated by Harper is seriously eroding the Liberal support on the right edge of the radical centre. I believe this is a correct assumption. In fact, there is a consistent portion of Liberal support, especially in rural Canada, that is highly and probably forever compromised. The Conservative government's latest initiatives confirm that Harper is trying hard to consolidate that vote and Liberal support in these areas. Furthermore, in many of these ridings, the fight is going to be more and more between the Conservatives and the NDP with the Liberals relegated to third place.
The second assumption is related to Quebec. Chrétien almost succeeded in eradicating the Bloc Québécois of Lucien Bouchard and Gilles Duceppe from the political equation. It was Liberal politics at the beginning of this decade that destroyed those Liberal chances to regain control in this province and has reinforced the presence of the Bloc. Of course, Chrétien is smart enough to understand that Ignatieff will not take them back to the front rows in Quebec. The present leadership is all about tactics and gimmicks, but very short on strategies and vision. It's like a ship on high seas trying not to succumb to the perfect storm, but without any sense of direction.
Without Quebec and rural Canada, the only thing left for the present Liberal Party is downtown Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. And even in this area, where the so-called ethnic vote is predominant, they are surviving only because the presence of the well-oiled electoral machine and the personal network of their own MPs. In fact, they keep holding onto their seats not because of the central organization and leadership, but despite it. And the almost complete absence of the picture of their federal leader in their mailings and offices is not a coincidence.
Many in the party are hoping to get rid of MPs who have been there for a long time; it's an academically valid point, in reality when they leave, so will the seat.
I believe these are the main reasons why Chrétien wants to move beyond the present status and try an alliance with the NDP when the Liberals still have an edge over the New Democrats. Going at this pace, with the Liberal leadership in disarray and the NDP doing serious and effective groundwork with the Canadian electorate, there might even be a chance that the fading Liberals might be swallowed up by the New Democrats in the future. Layton and his effective organizers are convinced that their electorate is tired enough to be the conscience of the country but not its government. They know they have to make the move and they know this is the time. Their organization is becoming stronger every day and their leaders are more and more pragmatic. And that is bad news for a Liberal Party in a chronic state of chaos and without a credible leadership for almost five years.
