Public opinion polls are important because they
give a snapshot of the day on a certain issue or political party.
The problem is the picture is only good for that specific day
because things change and, in politics, they change very fast.
But
in order to better understand what politics is all about, it's
important to monitor a string of polls for at least one month.
I've
monitored the Ekos polls for the last couple of months. What I've
seen is that despite the efforts of all political organizations,
Canadian federal politics has not changed and is following the same
trends as the past several years.
It's
apparent that the equation is still based on the same factors as two
to three years ago, namely that Canadian politics hinges around the
personality of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. It's clear that
Canadians don't dislike Harper even if they still have some doubts
about giving him a majority. If he performs well, the numbers for
the Conservative Party go up and the Liberals numbers go down and
vice versa. As for the NDP and the Bloc Québécois,
they are just accessories to this volatile situation that, as
mentioned, hinges exclusively around Prime Minister Harper.
Take
a closer look at the Ekos polls from mid-December. At that time, the
Conservatives were at 35.9 per cent and the Liberals were at 26.7
per cent. Things changed for the Conservatives at the beginning of
January. The government's decision to prorogue had a negative impact
on the electoral fortunes of Harper's government with a peak when
the Liberals and NDP went back to the House. It was at the end of
January on the date when Parliament was supposed to be back on Jan.
25. In fact, in the following poll the Liberals peaked, at 31.9 per
cent with the Conservatives at 31 per cent.
After
that, the blip seemed to peter down and in this week's poll from the
same research company, the Conservatives were still at 31 per cent
while the Liberals were down almost three points to 29 per cent.
Clearly
the blip in the polls in the last few weeks has nothing to do with
Ignatieff and a support for his leadership, but just a protest vote
against the government.
Some
asked last week "how such a bad government can still have a lead of
two points over the Liberals?"
The
answer should be obvious. After changing leaders three times after
Jean Chrétien,
the Liberal Party still is not taken seriously by Canadian voters.
In
fact, it is not the Liberal Party that has the problem, but its
leaders.
Even
the blips they enjoy during some Conservative blunders have nothing
to do with the performance of their leader. It is a confidence vote
for the Liberal brand name. To put it mildly, the last three leaders
of the Liberal Party have been millstones around the neck of the
once powerful "natural governing party."
The
popularity of the Liberal Party is stagnant and it is kept afloat
only because the Liberal brand name is still appealing to a large
sector of Canadian voters. Today, the Liberal machine is like a
Formula One car parked in the pits since Chrétien
left. Since then, the Liberals have been unable to find a good pilot
to drive it to the checkered flag.
There
is no doubt that Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal machine have not
crashed since the arrival of Peter Donolo. But this is only because
they have kept Ignatieff parked in the pit lane fearful of crashing
the Liberal Formula One car again.
In
the meantime, while the Liberal machine collects dust at Stornoway
for want of a driver, the Olympics go on, the economy is recovering,
Haitians are still in need of help, and Harper keeps governing.
As
for the NDP and the Bloc Québécois,
their support has always been the same, as if the prorogation and
other political events never
happened.
