Public opinion polls, as we all know, go up and down and in the
last few years have been more volatile than feathers in the wind, as
Giuseppe Verdi put it in the Rigoletto. Still, the last slump
of the Conservatives has created some turmoil within Prime Minister
Stephen Harper's minority governing caucus and some excitement
within Liberal ranks.
Despite that the decision to prorogue Parliament was initially
welcomed by most of the Conservative caucus members, there is now a
lingering disappointment with the decision. Some are trying to blame
the Prime Minister and the PMO.
These feelings, gently, but openly emerged during the GTA and
Quebec Conservatives' caucus meetings held in the last few
weeks.
Some Conservative MPs, even if not against the decision to
prorogue Parliament, were not happy with the PMO's communications
plan, or lack of one, to explain to Canadians the reasons for the
prorogation.
I'm sure that, by now, they have realized that the decision was
not in the best interests of the government, and/or its execution
was faulty. Still, they believe that it's too late to go back for
two reasons. They don't want Canadians to think the Prime Minister
is a weak leader who changes his views with the polls and the Throne
Speech is not ready.
At the same time, some Liberals are encouraged by the changes and
are taking a big breath of relief, knowing that Prime Minister
Harper won't provoke an election this spring. There are some
Liberals who are so encouraged by this change in the mood of the
electorate that they are seriously considering the possibility of
bringing down the government after the presentation of the next
budget.
Of course this kind of action is, for now, vehemently disputed by
many Liberal strategists. First because they know that the mood of
the electorate changes very often and what is true today is not
necessarily true in a couple weeks.
The second reason is the one that concerns the Liberals the most.
The changes in the voting preferences of the electorate have little
to do with the Liberal Party and much less with its leader Michael
Ignatieff. The whole issue is about the government and Harper and
this can change in the next few weeks after the Olympics and,
mainly, after the March budget.
The Ekos poll last week put the Liberals at 31.9 per cent and the
Tories at 31 per cent, which is well within the margin of error. The
same poll put the NDP at 15.4 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 8.4
per cent, and the Green Party at 10.9 per cent. Those numbers would
give the Liberals the possibility of forming a minority government,
but this is like Ignatieff betting his political future on the 6/49.
The jury on his leadership credibility is still out and the doubts
about his performance during a very tough and long campaign have not
been tested yet.
Furthermore, the Liberals have already tried to bring the
government down last fall, but their action failed miserably because
the other two opposition parties didn't bite and supported the
government. To go to the polls, the Liberals need something more
consistent in electoral support, and if they get it, it will not
come from the Conservatives, but most likely from the Bloc Québécois
in Quebec and the NDP in the rest of the country.
If that happens, I'm not sure that the other two parties are
eager to switch from a Harper minority government to one led by
Ignatieff, the same guy who killed the coalition of 2008 between the
three opposition parties.
It would be politically wise for the Liberals to work hard to
rebuild the party, the policies and the leader, before gambling on
their future and that of the country.
Unfortunately, they have tried once and they could try again. For
some in the Liberal Party going back to power is everything and, it
also might be that losing again to another minority Conservative
government will give them the opportunity to get rid of Ignatieff
which would be seen by some Liberals as a victory in itself.
