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Monday July
6,
2009 BACK NEXT
Parliament is adjourned and the barbecue circuit
is open for business. Scores
of politicians of all stripes will be flipping hamburgers and hot
dogs this summer, delivering greetings on behalf of their leaders
and distributing photocopied awards to whoever is willing to see his
or her name on a colourful piece of paper in a frame—
and, of course, thanking them in advance for the difference they are
going to make in the next election. This
might sound cheap and kitschy but it’s
not. All
this activity is part of a democratic process that will bring
legislators closer to the legislated. BBQs
are just one of a list of powerful communication tools whose effects
will help the political parties during the next
election. The
Liberals are the best at it. The
Conservatives prefer transforming everything, including wedding
receptions, into policy seminars. The
NDP has a thing for demonstrations against the seminars organized by
the Conservatives. For
the summer, however, forget about seminars and demonstrations
because the barbecue circuit takes over
everything. All
the efforts of the parties’
rank-andfile members during the summer will be useless, however, if
their respective leaders don’t
present themselves to their parties and their voters with clearer
ideas about their programs, policies and, most importantly, their
own political identities. Political
strategists used to say that the most important element during an
electoral campaign is the leader’s
popularity. According
to some, up to 60 to 70 per cent of the electoral success is related
to it. Then
there is the name recognition, the organization and lastly the
individual candidate’s
popularity. In
fact, during a campaign we hear voters telling candidates members,
“I
like you, but I can’t
vote for your leader. ”
It is very unlikely they will say even though some MPs like to
believe that, “We
don’t
like your leader but we will vote for you
anyway. ”
As I wrote last week, the only leader who can do business as usual
during the summer is the Bloc’s
Gilles Duceppe, whose party and leadership are always defined by the
strength or weakness of the party’s
opponents. NDP
Leader Jack Layton needs to unidentify himself with an identity that
will take him nowhere. He
tried hard last year to be creative with his coalition with Liberals
and the Bloc Québécois. While
I think it was a bad idea, I still believe that worse than a bad
idea is no idea. Socialists
around the world have been trying to redefine themselves since the
1990s. The
NDP is still fiddling with good principles that are not supported by
a realistic political strategy. It’s
hard and it’s
not Layton’s
fault if the party is in a political limbo. Still,
he is the leader and he must find a solution
soon. Otherwise,
he might be looking for a new job after the next
election. For
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, he should decide if he wants the
Liberal Party to be a political alternative to the Conservative
Party or an alternative to Stephen Harper. The
difference is huge. In
the first case, Ignatieff must define a political, ideological and
an economic program that’s
different from Harper’s
and which the Liberals supported in the House. In
the second case, he has to be more specific about the program he is
supporting now, stop criticizing it and highlight the differences
between himself and the Prime Minister. The
worst thing he can do is what he is does now: criticize Harper but
support his programs. As
for the Prime Minister, he is the only one who can prepare for the
next campaign without looking at what other parties are
doing. He
has all the elements to define his own agenda and
leadership. Up
to now the Conservatives have spent too much time and energy
defining the opposition and not nearly enough defining
themselves. The
electorate usually doesn’t
pay enough attention to the leaders of the opposition until they
decide to dump the Prime Minister. The
fact that Harper has been able to win two elections, means that the
electorate is still interested in his
leadership. However,
the fact that he has not been able to win a majority means that they
are still not completely convinced about his
leadership. Attacking
the opposition might still be a good idea and it may help the
Conservatives win another minority government but, in order to win a
majority, they have to address their problems, not those of the
opposition. There
will be a better indication this summer about which direction the
party leaders want to go and we’ll
see what to expect in the fall. For
now, bring on the
burgers.
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