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Monday June
29,
2009 BACK NEXT
They have a lot of work to do
By
Angelo
Persichilli
THE HILL
TIMES
While
politicians may be on holiday, politics is not. Presently, the
economic challenges have forced all political organizations to
abandon the traditional gospel they have preached for years, sailing
in a stormy sea without their traditional compass. Never before have
words like Conservatives and Liberals, left or right, been as empty
of any political significance as they have been during this economic
crisis.
Governments of all stripes reacted to the economic
tsunami by throwing at it whatever they could; much like desperate
people throwing furniture at a much more powerful aggressor.
People were confused but generally very understanding of the
unprecedented situation.
However, when Parliament resumes in
the fall and the fog of war lifts, Canadians are expecting much more
than a knee-jerk reaction from their leaders. The electorate wants a
plan and the political organizations must regain their identity.
Let's take a look at the current situation of the major
political organizations at a time when their leaders are ready to
hit the barbecue circuit.
Jack Layton's NDP will have major
homework, followed by Michael Ignatieff's Liberal Party. Stephen
Harper's Conservatives, while not devoid of their own share of
homework, have fewer problems. For now, Gilles Duceppe's Bloc
Québécois
is in the best position.
The Bloc Québécois
has not changed: they fight for Quebec. You can ask Duceppe about
the weather and his answer will always be the same: we want more
money for Quebec. The problem for the Bloc is not identity, but an
enemy to target. If they overly attack the Conservatives, they risk
campaigning for the Liberals and vice versa. Their success is based
on timing during an election.
They must destroy the possible
alternative for their electorate at the last moment, when there is
no chance for the electorate to create another one. It happened last
year with the ferocious attack against the favoured Conservatives,
and before with the Liberals. This time the Liberals are the
potential alternative to the Bloc.
My guess is that Duceppe
will start attacking the Liberals when they know that an election is
around the corner.
Then there's the Conservatives.
They, contrary to the Bloc, have an identity problem because
of the massive $40-billion stimulus spending which is not so
conservative. It's not serious because their electoral base
understands that Prime Minister Harper had no choice. In fact, most
of the important economic decisions made by Ottawa were a
consequence of an international effort to tame the economic crisis
and the one that started it all was a leader who could never be
considered a socialist: George W. Bush.
At the same time,
the Red Tories and other Canadians understand the initiatives Harper
took because they are the same ones adopted by U.S. Democratic
President Barack Obama. In September, however, people will want to
see something more specific for the government in terms of how the
massive investments are being used and the results provided.
Furthermore, people want to know how the government plans to
deal with the abysmal deficit accumulated. In fact, the major threat
to the world economy in the next few years comes specifically from
the measures adopted to fight the present crisis.
In the
fall, the Harper government is going to face much tougher scrutiny
from Canadian taxpayers. It's a tough scrutiny but also manageable.
In order to face it, they don't need anybody; they have all the
instruments they need in their hands.
It's tougher for the
Liberals.
During the summer they have to put meat around the
bones of their policies. Up to now, their behaviour has been quite
confusing: they support the economic policy of the government in the
House while attacking it outside. I understand how it might sound
appealing to adopt the wait-and-see attitude. If the plan works they
take the credit, if it doesn't it is the government's fault. But it
can go the other way around. If it works, the government takes the
credit. If it doesn't, the electorate might be upset with them
because they supported it.
Canadians are not stupid and by
the fall, the Liberals have to decide clearly which way to go. They
have to present an alternative and kill the government, or "own" the
present plan and take the credit. The current strategy of suck and
blow will not work in the fall.
The party with most problems
is the NDP.
They have their own identity, but that's the
problem. Their identity, considering the dramatic economic and
political changes seen around the world, make them look like a folk
singer in the Teatro alla Scala choir singing La Traviata.
Layton put himself in a corner. He has closed
the door on any cooperation with the Conservatives, but at the same
time he doesn't have the electoral strength to be in government or
in the official opposition.
The best case scenario for Layton
is a Liberal minority government with the NDP winning enough seats
to help the Liberals reach a majority. The problem for the NDP is
that if the Liberals win enough seats to be in the opposition, many
of those seats will come from the NDP. Layton has two months to
prepare an exit strategy to a dangerous situation not just for his
leadership, but the future of the NDP.
During the next two
months, the leaders of all political organizations will be engaged
in a very difficult exercise that will shape their future for years
to come.
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