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Monday June
15,
2009 BACK NEXT
Underestimating Iggy
By
Angelo
Persichilli
THE HILL
TIMES
The
events of the last few weeks have confirmed, once again, that
federal politics is a private matter between the Liberals and
Conservatives. The Bloc Québécois
and NDP continue to behave like musicians playing the "spartito" not
realizing that the opera has changed. The Bloc wants more money for
Quebec (that's a first), while the NDP wants to replace the Tory
government (I assume with a Liberal one).
Will the polls
change before the end of the summer? That depends on whether the
Liberals and Conservatives put the best interests of their parties
ahead of the best interests of the public.
For the
Conservatives it is easy because, in this case, the interests of
Canadians coincide with their party's. We are in the middle of a
severe recession and we assume that the majority of Canadians have
other priorities than a federal election. The second reason is
exclusively of a partisan nature; in fact, it is better for the
government if the economy improves before going to the voters.
What about the Liberals? It's more complicated. They know
that Canadians need an election at this time like they need a bullet
in the head, but they want to go to the polls now for the same
partisan reason the Conservatives want to go later.
The
concerns expressed by Liberal Party Leader Michael Ignatieff are
completely legitimate. He said last week that, contrary to the Bloc
and the NDP, he wants to be very careful before pulling the plug and
see if it's in the real interest of Canadians. At the same time, he
might consider it politically unfair to work with the government to
solve the economic crises and not receive any credit in the future.
He's right: he has responsibility towards Canadians but also
towards his party.
Where I don't agree with Ignatieff, or, I
might say with the hawkish wing of his party, is the assumption that
this is the best time for his party to go to the polls.
I'm
firmly convinced that, for the time being, the economic window
opportunity is already closed. First, we have already gone through
the worst part of the recession. This doesn't mean that the people
without a job are going to get them back soon, but consumer
confidence is slowly returning and during the summer the national
mood, especially during holiday times, will be improved.
Second, Canadians know that this recession is not made in
Canada but has been imposed on us by international events. Canadians
don't pay much attention to politics, but they are much more
informed than we believe.
The proof is in the polls. Yes,
Liberal support is slowly going up while the Conservatives' is
eroding. Still, considering the severity of the recession, the
government can be fairly happy with the support it still enjoys.
Throw into the mix an election that people don't want, an
organization that can't be compared—at
least not yet—with
the one the Conservatives can enjoy, add many millions of dollars
the Conservatives already have in the coffers while the Liberals
have only some IOUs and you have a clear picture of how dangerous
the gamble is.
Furthermore, Ignatieff is a good leader, but
I'm not sure he's ready for a very tough campaign. This has nothing
to do with intelligence or preparation, it's about political
experience that comes only with practice.
If Liberals
believe that Ignatieff can defeat Harper only because of the
economic difficulties we are now in, I believe they are
underestimating the ability of their leader to defeat the government
on its own terms and merit, not because of the recession.
One last minor point: if he topples the government because
he doesn't like Harper's economic plan, which plan is he going to
present to Canadians in the next few weeks?
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