In My Opinion! - A Parer Mio!

the longer term as well in order to be stronger than before the recession.
Moreover, Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) says since becoming Prime Minister the biggest surprise has been how his job is focused on foreign affairs in this "modern, integrated, global economy," and says he hopes to find common ground with the next president of the United States, Barack Obama, on energy, climate change, the economy and Afghanistan.

Why do you think this budget is different from the others?
"Well, every budget's different, but obviously we're in a different economic [situation] than we've been in since—at least since I've been Prime Minister—and for a long, long time, and that is we're obviously in the midst of a global economic recession that is making its effects felt in this country. And look, the economic circumstances that we're seeing now are something we have not seen in a very long time, and that is; first of all, globally, the level of instability in the financial system, in markets, and we've seen downturns before, but we haven't seen this kind of instability in a long, long time. And we also have a phenomenon right now where we know there's money out there, money that is sitting on the sidelines because people are afraid to spend because they're afraid about the future [and] where businesses are afraid to invest because of the volatility in markets, falling prices, [and] falling profits. Even bond-holders are worried about capital losses. Everybody is just sitting on the money and nothing's happening and things, you know, globally continue to go down."

So, what can you do?
"You know, my training as economist tells me that this is the one time where governments should be coming into the economy, borrowing money, borrowing that money that is sitting there at low interest rates and putting it into productive economic activity. And that's what we're going to do in this budget, with a two-fold purpose: to sustain economic activity in the short-term [because] in the next couple of years, a lot of what we'll be doing will be time-limited measures, [over] the next couple of years. But also in many cases, to take the opportunity to make some investments for the longer term so that when, as the recovery occurs, and it will, that we come out of this stronger than before."

It's very hard to make predictions in this kind of environment. Do you think that Canada will see growth at the end of the year, or in 2010?
"Normally, when governments prepare budgets, they ask the private-sector economists and forecasters to give their best judgments for a year. We have never seen such variability in these forecasts before. As a consequence, this government has been doing forecasts basically every month and every month, those forecasts have been changing. So I think we've all learned by now not to make predictions—you know, I like the Yogi Berra quote: 'Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.' "

So no predictions?
"Look, what we're going to do is we'll be taking a look at the most recent private-sector forecast, I'm led to believe are just coming in now. We'll use those in the budget but we will probably take a pessimistic view, we'll take the lower end of those forecasts. We'll assume that we've got some pretty big challenges in the next couple of years and we'll plan for that. And, as I say, we will be borrowing money, spending money, making sure there's additional economic activity. But also making sure, trying to make sure that the deficits we bring in are short term as well."

More than a month ago, you and Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty made a statement about helping out the auto industry. It was in Toronto. Both of you said that you were going to monitor how things were proceeding. After a month, can you say something?
"All I will say is we've had some mixed signals from the auto companies in the few weeks following that announcement. We keep getting different reads on what their financial situation is. But we are both governments and obviously [we] and the government of the United States are working with them very closely to ascertain what the real situation is and what has to be done. And, as you know, it is not a simple matter of throwing some money into the industry and bailing them out. There's going to have to be some serious restructuring to make that industry, those companies, viable in the longer term."

Are you optimistic on this subject?
"This is going to be an extremely difficult file. I don't want to tell, you know, we're in there to make sure we do not have a catastrophic collapse of this industry. I don't want to tell you that there won't be job losses or there won't be lower wages. I mean, these are all big risks in this industry. But we will be there to do two things: to help a transition to a more viable industry and to make sure, as I said in December, that we do our share so that the industry is not restructured by the United States government entirely into the United States. That is obviously the biggest reason for our involvement, to make sure that we keep our share of the industry."

More and more things can only be solved internationally. Do you think that there is a need to redefine the role of the Prime Minister and the role of the minister of foreign affairs?
"No, you know, I think it's been the case in the modern age that the Prime Minister invariably plays a significant role in international affairs. Obviously, the Foreign Affairs minister dedicates himself entirely to foreign affairs and is able to travel the world and dialogue with his counterparts with a frequency that the Prime Minister is not able to do so, but in the modern age of travel and communications. And, you know, in the interconnected global world, it's inevitable that a big part of the Prime Minister's job is foreign affairs. I think you've heard me say before that people have asked me what are the biggest surprises since I came to office, and probably one of the biggest surprises is the degree to which my term as Prime Minister and my time as Prime Minister is used for foreign affairs. You really do realize very quickly in the modern integrated global economy that there are a lot of our problems that cannot be solved nationally, or more importantly, the national solution, has to take into account what others are doing. It's unavoidable."

You will see Barack Obama when he's here. And there are many issues you are going to talk about, of course. The first issue you raised after his victory was the environment. Do you think that there is a common ground with him and do you think that having a common ground with Obama would create a kind of friction with Alberta?
"If I can give a kind of just a little introduction to my comments there, which is first of all we're delighted that President Obama, president-elect Obama, has decided to make Canada his first foreign trip. As you know, this had been a tradition of American presidents prior to the last Liberal government and we kind of got away from that. And so I'm really, really pleased that President Obama has decided to do this. I think we've been trying to rebuild our relationship since we came to office and I think this is a real sign that the Americans, you know, have appreciated that and see benefit themselves to doing it. I said when ... after his election that I see three areas where I think we have a lot of potential common ground. One is on the whole linkage of issues around energy and the environment. And, you know, it obviously for the United States is not just about climate change or reducing greenhouse gases. It's also about ensuring their energy security because the United States is fundamentally an energy-deficient country with enormous national security issues that revolve around energy. And those can't be separated from trying to deal with the climate change issue. So I think that, and you know, obviously for Canada, it's hard for us to deal with the climate change issue effectively when we have an integrated economy and anything we do to our industry impacts their continental competitiveness. So I think there's a tremendous opportunity for us to look at working together, or at least to learn from what each other is trying to do in that area."

And the second area?
"A second area that is obviously going to be very critical is the economy and the auto sector is the most concrete example where, you know, the cooperation we've had with the Bush Administration I suspect will continue with the Obama Administration on the auto sector. But, you know, obviously in terms of preparing for G8, G20 meetings and many of the shared challenges we have on the continent, I think we'll have a very useful dialogue there. And then third and finally, the United States has enormous, you know, enormous international obligations and international concerns around the world, and we are a part of all of those and we can't obviously solve all of those, but in areas where we are engaged with them like Afghanistan, you know, these are tremendous opportunities to develop our important relationship."

"THIS IS ONE TIME WHERE GOVERNMENTS SHOULD BE COMIN G INTO THE ECONOMY"

An interview with Prime Minister Stephen Harper