The 40th Canadian Parliament will start
next month with the political parties looking for answers to the
same questions they failed to answer in 2006. The Conservatives will
try to form a government with balanced representation from all
Canadian regions, including the big cities such as Toronto,
Montreal, Quebec and Vancouver. The Liberals will look for a new
leader; the NDP will try to find a strategy to influence government
activities and the Bloc Québécois will just be happy to be
alive.
Of course, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and
NDP Leader Jack Layton are a bit stronger because of their seat
gains, and for the same reason the Liberals are
weaker.
However, the fact of the matter is that the
future of Harper’s government, according to mathematics, is still in
the hands of the Liberals and the NDP can do nothing about
it.
Of course, there is an argument from
Harper’s critics on why he wasn’t able to get a majority despite
facing a very weak Liberal
leader.
But there is also a question for
Layton:how come he was not able to win 40 seats or
more despite facing weak Liberal and Conservative
leaders?
This Parliament will still be influenced by
these questions and only another election can give us
answers.
The only party that can really make a big
change is the Bloc Québécois.
Up until now, and also during the last
election, Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe’s electoral support
came mainly from disgruntled Liberal voters desperately looking for
an alternative. The Oct. 14 vote was not a vote of confidence for
Duceppe but a rebuttal of the Liberals and the
Conservatives.
Duceppe can, of course, wait for the next
election hoping that, again, the Liberals and Conservatives will not
be a charm for Quebec voters or do something
different.
The first option is dangerous because,
sooner or later, the Conservatives and Liberals will be able to come
back in Quebec and the electorate is not prepared to be on the
sidelines forever and the Bloc Québécois will be erased. Or the Bloc
can become a real Canadian party whose base is still in Quebec but
ready to work with other political
organizations.
Just to be clear, if the Bloc realizes that
the idea of separating Quebec from this country is on fewer and
fewer people’s minds and the bulk of their support comes from voters
that only want a better representation in the Canadian Parliament,
the role of the Bloc will increase greatly. Duceppe is an
intelligent person and he knows that the time of “Vive le Québec
libre” of Charles De Gaulle is long gone; and, if anybody had any
doubts, French President Nicolas Sarkozy reminded it to everybody
last week right in the Quebec National
Assembly.
Quebec separatism is only in the
minds of a few people, such as Jaques Parizeau. It’s pathetic that
he keeps talking about the 1995 “close victory” of the sovereignists
as proof of his theory. He knows he had to resort to a convoluted
question hiding the key word, separatism, to get some fake
results.
Duceppe’s
Bloc Québécois has an opportunity to make this Parliament the
starting point of a new era of Canadian federalism.