“Canadians told us to work
together” is the message, according to many politicians and
columnists, from last Tuesday vote. I don’t believe so. In fact
there are many and conflicting messages according to geography,
culture and demography.
In the West they said they love
the Conservatives, in the Atlantic Canada voters are still attached
to the Liberals but don’t trust their leaders any longer and are
open to a dialogue with the Conservatives. In Ontario, after the
collective hysteria for the Liberals during the Chrétien’s era,
voters are now opened for business to the best bidder again. In
Québec the Francophone vote has left the Liberals and is flirting
with the Conservatives. However, since they are not used to someone
outside their province, the Quebec vote is parked with the Bloc.
Within these geographic areas there are oases of Liberal support:
urban areas like the GTA, Montréal and Vancouver regions. This means
that the Liberal Party is now basically the party of the so-called
ethnics. It doesn’t mean that the ethno-cultural vote is still solid
for them, in fact it is fading steadily. However, it’s still
consistent enough to keep the Liberal Party at Stornoway.
With this in mind, let’s take a
close look at the leaders.
Stephen Harper’s problem is not
his political agenda but his communication department. Based on the
record of two years of government, Harper was heading towards a
majority. Do we really believe that he lost it when Canadians
realized that he cut $40 million for arts and culture or a proposed
puny reform of the criminal code? Yes, we had the collapse of the
global markets, but Canadians were smart enough to understand that
those problems, even though concerning for our economy, had nothing
to do with our government. Harper was right in saying our
fundamentals are solid and our economy had created 107,000 jobs even
in September. The Conservatives were not in trouble because, again,
they bungled the message. Harper, rightly, remained calm, but
appeared detached from the concerns of Canadians. Conservatives have
to work on messaging and Harper has to establish a better
relationship with media.
The problem for Dion can be
summed up in one word: Dion. The problem for the Liberal Party is
that even if Dion leaves, they will still be divided. They lost, but
the defeat was not enough to clean up the mess they have at the top
of their organization. They need a broom to remove all the pollution
of years of infighting and feud, and I don’t see that
broom.
As for Jack Layton his problem
is still the Liberal Party. His job is difficult because he has to
fight the Conservatives hoping to get Liberal votes. It is like
writing a letter to someone unable to put his address on the
envelope. He still has another chance because Canadians don’t fear
Harper anymore and the Liberals can’t take advantage of the
strategic voting.
Gilles Duceppe is a good leader
but the success of his party depends almost exclusively on the
misfortunes of others. It’s like a parking space that can be full or
empty based on the success of the stores nearby.
Elizabeth May, along with Dion,
is the other leader that can be considered the real looser of
Tuesday vote. The agreement she had with Dion proved to be unwise
and, at the best, useless. Still confused the message and damaged
the brand of the party.
When will we go back to the
vote? You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know that this
government will last until the Conservatives will find a reason to
try again or when the Liberals believe they can defeat Stephen
Harper. It means a long time.
