No more shuffles?  

by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES

Election readiness, geography, and stability were the driving forces behind Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Cabinet mini-shuffle announced last week in Ottawa.

But these small changes have improved considerably the political weight of the government and the Prime Minister feels comfortable enough to face the next election with this team.

Harper's spokesperson, Dimitri Soudas, told The Hill Times that "the Prime Minister has no intention of having another shuffle this upcoming fall."

This feeling is shared by other officials in the Prime Minister's Office in Ottawa: "Many ministers are getting comfortable with their portfolios after many months of diligent work. Moving them around at this time would be highly counter-productive," said one PMO source.

This doesn't mean he won't make any minor changes before the next election, but the team he has now most likely is going to be the team he will lead in the next election, which resembles the one held in 1988—it's going to be a one-issue campaign. Twenty years ago, it was about the free trade election, the next one will be about the "carbon tax," or the Liberals' "green shift."

Of course, there are few question marks about this team. The first is related to the new minister of Foreign Affairs, David Emerson. It is widely known that he is not willing to run again and the Prime Minister doesn't want to go into the campaign with ministers who are not running.

The fact that Emerson was not only confirmed, but promoted means his decision not to run in the next election has been at least suspended. It will be completely reversed if the polls in his riding will improve in the next few months.

The other question mark is Ontario.

Of course, without the Maxime Bernier affair, Harper wouldn't have had to make any changes and would have postponed them to a time closer to the next election. But he took advantage of the opportunity to make some changes to correct the volatility in the Department of Foreign Affairs and to strengthen the team by promoting two young members of the Conservative caucus: James Moore and Christian Paradis.

However, the entire exercise really only involved two provinces: British Columbia and Quebec. The government team from British Columbia is now stronger with a new minister in Cabinet and another in a more prestigious position. Quebec loses Foreign Affairs, but gets International Trade and a new young minister in Cabinet.

Ontario, however, remains a problem. The province has a strong representation in Cabinet with three of its MPs in the most important portfolios: Health, Finance, and Environment, but this team unfortunately, doesn't seem able to get through the Ontario electorate for reasons that are not easy to understand.

Definitely the relationship of the federal minister of Finance, Jim Flaherty, and the government of Ontario doesn't help. Many federal Conservatives are aware that the most popular Conservative federal Member of Parliament in Ontario is Jason Kenney who's from Alberta.

So the question is: why didn't the Prime Minister address this issue in last week's shuffle? Will he do it before the next election?

Harper is expected to do something to improve his support in Ontario but he will seek the input of his next chief of staff Guy Giorno too. It is completely appropriate not to deal with Ontario at this time, knowing that in a few weeks Harper will have on his team a person like Giorno, who is an experienced strategist who knows Ontario very well. He was chief of staff to Mike Harris in a time when the Harris government was sailing through very rough waters, and Giorno's help was instrumental to winning the second mandate.

However, for the time being, the Conservatives, will spend the summer making sure that the "carbon tax" issue will stay the way it is, and not switched into the "green switch" debate.

This, however, presents a hidden problem for Harper. If Dion fails to promote his plan and in September his standings in the polls are worsened, there is a possibility that some other Liberals (don't ask for names, there is a long lineup) will tell him that his time is up, he has had the opportunity to promote his plan but that it didn't work. Someone will pay his debt and he will be politely told to get lost.

This means that Harper might face the possibility of fighting the next election against another Liberal leader, changing entirely the Canadian political scenario.

This also means that Conservatives will be better off spending the summer building up their credibility and relationship with the electorate, than destroying the best asset they have in the Liberal Party.