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Monday Mar. 3, 2008
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borrowed time
by
Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES
Unless an "accident" happens to change
the course of events in the House, last week's federal budget released by
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty gives an opportunity to major political
organizations to better prepare their electoral machines for the inevitable
federal election.
This borrowed time is of no use to the NDP, whose structure is a permanent
standby electoral machine, and it doesn't make any difference to the Bloc
Québécois, whose political strength most of the time has nothing to do with
their actions but is determined by the political fortunes of the Liberals in
Quebec and the capacity of the Conservatives to capitalize on it. Today or
in six months, it would be the same gamble for Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles
Duceppe.
That leaves the Conservatives and the Liberals.
The Conservatives have the best political organization so far. They have the
money and the people, but there is a huge problem: Ontario. In this
riding-rich province their presence is weak and, aside from the Prime
Minister Stephen Harper, there is no "poster boy" to lead the charge during
an election. The Conservatives still have problems in urban areas (mainly in
the '416' area), and they have concentrated their efforts in the '905'
region and Northern Ontario. In these areas, however, their organizations
are very weak and they need a "provincial" leader to back up the efforts of
Prime Minister Harper.
Of course, more serious is the situation of the Liberals. If the
Conservatives have a leader but they need an organization in Ontario, the
Grits have an organization but they need a leader, in Quebec and the rest of
the country.
Talking to many of the strategists and Liberal MPs, the problem obviously is
the leadership of Stéphane Dion who seems to be unable to overcome three
major problems.
One Liberal strategist said there's a widespread consensus among all "camps"
that Dion is "the worst fundraiser in the modern history of the Liberal
Party from Mackenzie King on." This is a serious problem. It means the
Liberals won't have enough money for their organization and, more
importantly, it reflects the popularity, or the lack of, the leader himself
has.
The second problem, one MP said is that "in order to have national
credibility, a leader must be competitive in Quebec." Unfortunately for the
Liberals, Dion has no pull in his own province and the loss of a byelection
last year has stung the hopes of many strategists.
And, many MPs say, Dion has no hope to compensate for his lack of strength
in Quebec in the rest of the country: "Look, nobody wants to talk about
this," one Liberal strategist said. "But the lack of fluency in English is a
huge problem because it doesn't allow him to deliver a proper message."
Basically, Canadians start asking themselves why a political leader can't be
Prime Minister if he or she is not fluent in French, but it's not true if
it's the other way around.
Other Liberal leaders had the same problem, like former prime minister Jean
Chrétien, who after a little time, was able to articulate his message, even
if not very elegantly, but definitely it was very clear and effective. The
problem is that we still cannot understand what he tells us in the caucus, a
Liberal MP told me.
So, with a leader unable to lead, who is at the steering wheel of the
election machine? Who decided that this is not the best time to go to the
polls and support a budget they don't like?
I asked this question to many Liberal MPs and strategists in the last few
days, and this is the conclusions I've reached. At the present time, the
Liberal Party is polarized around two leaders: Michael Ignatieff and Bob
Rae. Dion is considered a figurehead.
While both camps know that "in the next election we are going nowhere with
this leader" they don't agree on the timing to trigger the defeat of Harper.
Ignatieff is more prone to an immediate election for many reasons, but Rae
would like more time. An early leadership convention would definitely give
an edge to Ignatieff whose organization is by far the best. On the other
hand, Rae would like to win his seat in Toronto Centre first, increase his
handle inside the party while in the House and then, in the fall or next
spring, be ready for an election. Does this mean that Rae prevailed last
week with the Liberals supporting the budget?
Not necessarily. Many MPs who support Ignatieff said they wouldn't mind an
early election but that the situation they see is so bad that they're afraid
of losing their own seats. "Of course we would like to get rid of Dion, but
we're not eager to go with him."
So the Liberals hope for things to improve enough to defend their seats, but
not to save Dion's political destiny. Of course, they count on the
Conservatives' cooperation to improve their chances. But, at the same time,
the cooperation shouldn't be too consistent otherwise Dion might become the
next Prime Minister and that would be the end of the political career for
some potential leadership candidates whose biological clock is inexorably
ticking towards the 70s. |
