In
a normal Parliament, this week would have been the last opportunity for
federal opposition parties to send Canadians to the polls before next
spring. But this isn't a normal Parliament and we're possibly looking at
a Christmas election campaign right now.
Ever since 1993, Canadian electoral traditions have been shattered and
voters have been forced to go to the polls five times since then. We're
now on the verge of the sixth general election in less than 15 years.
Considering that the average duration of a Parliament is four-and-a-half
years, the next election should really be taking place in 2015.
Trying to predict when Parliament will be dissolved is like playing the
lottery and no single player involved in this political game has the
ability to attain lift-off on their own. This button requires two
fingers. Of course, all parties have justified their positions by saying
that they believe their actions to be "in the best interests of
Canadians."
But in reality, all their decisions have been made with the best
interests of their own political organizations in mind.
All of the three opposition parties, alone, have the numbers to sustain
the minority government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. However, two
of them, Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Québécois, and Jack Layton's NDP, have
already said that they are going to vote against the government
preferring an immediate election "in the best interest of
voters." Of course.
Do the Conservatives and Liberals want an election or, can they afford
to avoid an election? There is no doubt Prime Minister Harper is the one
who can most afford to go to polls. He has the organization, the money
and, I'm sure the political program. But does he have the numbers?
Maybe, but they're volatile and I'm not sure that he will decide to go
all out, with this particular hand. The question he is asking himself is
clear: will the Liberals be in better shape in the near future?
Well, he answered the same question last spring and the answer he gave
came up with was negative. Some accused him of being gutless for missing
the opportunity. The facts proved that he was right and the critics were
wrong. Now, again, there are many in his party pushing for an election,
but I'm sure Harper knows he needs more time to better
"connect" with Canadians.
In order to assess whether the Liberals will be better off in the near
future, you have to understand what's going on within the party, which
is no easy task. Nonetheless, you can safely say that the Liberals are
deeply divided and the scars are beyond immediate repair. To get an idea
of how profound those wounds are, a quick reading of Jean Chrétien's
new book, My Years As Prime Minister, which should have been titled
Straight Through the Heart, is all that would be required. Before the
Liberals can be united again, a generational change is needed. What was
supposed to be "the new generation of Liberals" has become a
recycled version of the old, with all the bad habits remaining and
without inheriting any positive qualities.
I believe that that the situation can only deteriorate further with the
distinct possibility that some of them will try to push Liberal Leader
Stéphane Dion out before an election. They tried once with John Turner
and, yes, they failed. But Turner had a real team behind him and was
able to fight back. Dion, let's face it, has no team, he never had a
team and can be thrown out at anytime.
The Liberal leader is aware of that and may decide to force an election
in the hopes that the event will unify the party behind him.
So, will there be an election this fall or winter?
I believe that Harper is better prepared for an election than anyone
else but wouldn't mind staying put for now. We will know in a few weeks
where he stands because he has the capacity to trigger an election by
presenting a bill that he knows the opposition cannot support. He can
turn the fiscal update into a mini-budget in the middle of November and
call the bluff on the opposition parties, mainly the Liberals.
The Prime Minister is not going to make it easy for the Dion. However, I
believe that he cannot go too far because he might find the leader of
the Liberal Party in a "make my day" mood and we will all go
to the polls on Jan. 23. Again.
