The
day before the Throne Speech, a Liberal strategist told me, “Stéphane
cannot last six more months. I’m sure he wants to go to the polls
immediately.” I found this statement very interesting for two reasons
because it means that the internecine war within the Liberal Party is
going to continue, not subside, and because it reflects a radical change
of position within the Leader’s Office. The request for an immediate
election came from Dion’s leadership foes. I called it a “political
euthanasia” a few weeks ago when it was apparent that a group of
Liberal “hawks” wanted an election as soon as possible to deal with
Dion’s leadership.
Those close to the faltering Liberal leader were more
realistically asking for more time before facing the electorate. The
party needs money, candidates, strategy, and much more. The stunning
defeat in the three by-elections in Quebec last month only exposed a
problem that was there for everybody to see since last December.
On the other end, the NDP and the Conservatives are well-suited
for an early election campaign, as both parties and the Bloc have half
their campaign strategies already in place—they only need to read
former prime minister Jean Chrétien’s book, My
Years as Prime Minister. Of
course, Dion has in his hands University of Calgary professor Tom
Flanagan’s book, Harper’s
Team, and
he tried to use it in the House already. But books don’t measure up to
political strategies, yet, Harper has a symphony book written by
Beethoven, Dion has the Yellow Pages.
The December 2006 Montreal convention was supposed to put closure
on the war between the Martinites and Chrétienites and start a new
chapter in the party’s history.
Instead, not only have they not been able to eliminate those two
labels (and Chrétien’s book speaks volume to that), they have
introduced two new brands: those still close to Michael Ignatieff and
those close to Bob Rae. These two leaders are not necessarily involved,
but their supporters are very active.
Dion is right in the middle pushed in every direction. To say it
plainly and simply, it’s a mess.
Many MPs were still asking for a tough stand against Harper’s
minority government at the caucus meeting before last Thursday’s
confidence vote on the Bloc’s Throne Speech sub-amendment confidence
vote, but, surprisingly, not from the same Quebec MPs who had been
asking the same days before.
The question is why is there a “trading places” of some
influential MPs? It might be that all the Liberals have decided to rally
around their leader or, considering that Dion had to resort to
appointing Senator Céline Hervieux- Payette to fill the prestigious
“Quebec lieutenant” job when most Quebec MPs turned it down, there
is a possibility that they might have decided to remove their leader
before an election and, for this reason, nobody wants to be associated
as a lame duck.
This brings us back to the Liberal strategist’s statement that
Dion won’t last six more months. Dion might have sensed that he will
not be able to withstand the internal pressure and wants to take his
case directly to the Canadians. If this is the case, why has he changed
his mind and decided to support a government he doesn’t like? One can
only guess.
Who is really in charge in his office now that his most trusted
advisers have been ostracized or neutered? The Liberal leader might
genuinely believe that Canadians do not want an election and he is ready
to take the burden on his shoulders and face the future.
Dion doesn’t have what it takes to be a leader because he is
too weak, but I’m convinced of his intelligence, his integrity and his
love for this country. It is completely possible that his decision has
been motivated by those elements.
Which one is the right answer? I don’t know, but the truth will
come out in a few weeks. If the attacks against Dion from within the
party cease, then his decision was based on principles and not political
calculations; if, instead, the leaks and backstabbing, or even a
manifest inaction of other Liberal leaders to help their elected leader,
continue, then expect more blood and a possible final push against a
lame duck leader for a new Liberal leadership convention before the next
election.
