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Monday Jan. 29, 2007|
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harper, dion
and the elections
An interview with michael marzolini
by
Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES
The
House of Commons is back, but politicians and pundits keep asking when it
will shut down again for the next election. So I thought I’d ask this and
other questions to one pollster who hasn’t polled on the timing of the next
election, Michael Marzolini, chairman and CEO of Pollara strategic public
opinion and market research.
Mr. Marzolini, some pundits are saying that we will have an
election when the numbers in the polls will clearly favour a specific party.
We see a lot of numbers flying around lately and I’m a bit confused about
who’s in the lead. Can you help me out?
"Those numbers are not very meaningful, at this point, except for questions
like the performance of Harper’s government. The public is in an informative
stage and looking at the political situation in the country. They don’t yet
know much about Stéphane Dion. They’ve heard his name but in the last poll,
when we asked people their impression about him, we had almost one-third of
Canadians saying that they just don’t know enough to make any sort of
judgment.”
How come? Are we in the media not talking much about him?
“In Canada, we have maybe one-quarter of
people who pay a lot of attention to federal politics, and that will
increase as we get closer to an election and, during the course of an
election campaign, almost 80 per cent pay a lot of attention. Those are the
people who are the fastest to move during a campaign or in between a
campaign, from a party to another. Right now they are in the pre-shopping
mood. I think they have not yet been able to get a good handle on all the
political parties. They want to learn more, but they are not eager to do so
at this time. They are going to pick up clues as the time goes by. The
Conservatives, for example, are moving towards the centre where there are
more votes.”
Will they be successful?
“Well, not enough people have been really clued into that yet to make a
final judgment.”
So, what’s your prediction?
“I’ve learned in the past never to try to predict what any one individual
would do, such as the Prime Minister. It’s much easier to predict public
opinion.”
What then do you believe they should do?
“The Conservative need to make gains in Quebec and the numbers, so far, are
not there. The Liberals, at the same time, need to make gains outside the
urban centres, and so far their numbers are not there either. We have a
Quebec provincial election that will have a great impact on the federal
campaign. We also have a situation where almost half of the Quebecers
believe that their province is in a period of recession, which is twice what
it is in any other province across Canada. So, we have a very fragile
electorate in Quebec that may turn, because of those economic reasons,
against Jean Charest or anybody that might be seen an incumbent.”
Do the people want an election?
“No, but if they will accept one is a different question, and it all depends
on the arguments. It’s important far all the parties not to look like
they’re forcing one for opportunistic reasons. People had enough of
opportunists in the previous years and they don’t really wish to see that
take place again.”
Let’s talk about issues. Which one will most influence the outcome of an
election in the near future?
“I believe that each of the parties has to base their appeal on three
things: economy, social issues and now the environment. This [the
environment] is a positioning issue, with the Conservatives seen,
historically, weak on it, the Liberals have been seen to be concerned about
it and the NDP have taken even a stronger position. We have already seen
some indications in the polls that the Cabinet shuffle and the appointment
of John Baird has helped Conservative fortunes and made people think that
the Conservative government is little bit more environment friendly than
they presumed, but there is still an historical weakness. All they need in
the campaign period is one or two Conservatives saying that, 'Climate
change is greatly overestimated,’ as some have done on blogs or speeches
in the past, and that will be a weakness in the presentation.”
Is it fair, looking at the latest numbers, to assume that the NDP is in some
difficulties?
“Well, they should be concerned about the Green Party. If you look at
history, when Green Party’s vote goes up, the NDP has problems. In British
Columbia, for example, the Green vote become No. 2 after some scandals in
NDP governments. They are a great byelection party and they should
concentrate on that. They are a very major threat toward the NDP. People who
don’t choose the NDP probably would go Green, even before going to the
Liberal Party.”
Can you give us an assessment of the major political leaders?
“Stephen Harper seems to be improving but there are still a lot of
suspicions among various urban demographics about his agenda. But it seems
he has gotten over the suspicion that was lurking there in the more suburban
areas. Certainly that is one of the areas where he was looking to improve
his vote to form a majority. If not Quebec then he is nibbling in the
suburban '905’ region in Ontario.”
What about Stéphane Dion?
“People don’t know and still can’t judge him. They’re prepared to like
him but he has a lot of positioning to do to get over the Liberal baggage of
the past.”
How?
“Well, he can do that with good and decisive policies, which has been an
oxymoron with the last two Liberal campaigns. He can do that in a very
passionate way by taking the high road. If he wrangles with the Stephen
Harper like any other old politician with innuendo and that stuff, there are
going to be problems. He should speak about issues, throw his passion on the
table and focus on quality of life for Canadians."
Is Jack Layton in trouble?
“He concentrates in certain areas where the NDP has strength. The NDP’s
goal is usually to gain some seats in British Columbia and Ontario. This
time I believe he has to instead try to hold onto them. A quarter of the NDP
vote is always up for grabs at any one time and, usually they don’t vote for
a party unless is the NDP. When they wanted to defeat the Liberals in 2006,
that one quarter of votes stayed with the NDP.”
Gilles Duceppe?
“I think he looks more statesmanlike as the time goes on. He had a very
good debate performance during the last election. He has a province that is
very economically pessimistic, and they are looking for hope. Harper and
Dion also have to put hope on the table and be able to talk to Quebecers,
not through the national unity filter this time around.”
What about Elizabeth May, the new leader of the Green Party?
“I’ve never met her and I cannot say much about her. What I can say is
that the traditional leader must take the environmental issues very
seriously during the next campaign.”
Is
it greater than health care?
“No, but health care has been an enduring issue, and since the 1997 campaign
it has been the top issue. When we ask people about the top issue in the
country the environment doesn’t appear to be on the top. But when we ask
people how concerned you are about health care and we ask the same question
on environment, sometimes the environment is even higher than health care.
It would be very important for all political parties to address this issue.
The public, in a couple of elections in the past, have been ignored with
respect to what they thought the most important issues were, and they tend
to punish the parties who run roughshod over their concerns. Public opinion
should never determine policies. Government should never follow public
opinion when they are convinced they are doing the right thing, but
certainly they should address public opinion. And, if they wish to do
something they believe to be right and the public is not sold on it, then
they can use public opinion polling and build public support for the policy
the government wishes to put through.”
So, at the present time, everything is up for grabs.
“The public opinion polls are still in a
formative stage. We are not sure where everything is going to end up because
we still have most of people not clued or connected to the political
situation. Once over a quarter of people know more about it, especially the
Liberal leader, we will find out. What we will like to do is to find out
where they will be moving. Right now it is a wait and see attitude.”
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