A leadership convention is a race
and, like all races, is about winners and losers. A friend told me it’s
not nice to talk about “losers” during the festive Christmas season, so,
from now on I will refer to them as non-winners.
In Montreal, Stéphane
Dion won, but it is not necessarily true that the others lost.
A victory or a defeat is
not just about numbers; behind every winner or non-winner are
strategies, organizations, money, and, most of all, people.
So, who are the winners
and the non winners of the recent Montreal Liberal convention? I’ll
start with the candidates themselves, then move on to the so-called
movers and shakers behind the candidates.
Of course, the real
winner is Dion. He came from the back of the pack with many pundits
quite skeptical about his chances.
Eventually, thanks to his
perseverance and, let’s say, some fortuitous circumstances, he was able
to get to the top. Congratulations.
Michael Ignatieff is not,
obviously, the winner but it would be unfair to call him, let me say it
once, a loser.
Only a few months ago, he
was basically a foreigner. He has been able to come back to Canada, win
a nomination in the Toronto riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont., and the
following election became an MP. Immediately, he became a leadership
candidate and was able to keep his name even on the last ballot.
He’s not a winner, but he
has established himself as a powerbroker in the Liberal Party of the
future. As for the future chances of becoming a leader, I believe that
his age will be a factor.
According to some
insiders, Bob Rae feels very bad about the results.
He shouldn’t. Of course
he did not win, but he was coming from way behind. In fact, nobody was
giving him any chance of victory only a few months ago and some wondered
if his decision to run was made while smoking funny cigarettes. He
proved everybody else, including myself, wrong. In Montreal, many
changed their opinion and were predicting, or, at least accepting the
possibility, of a victory.
In Montreal he may not
have won, but has been able to establish himself as a Liberal. He is not
(let me say it again) a loser, but he will become one if he doesn’t
accept the results and if he does not run in the next election. If he
doesn’t, it sends a message that he is arrogant and too much in love
with himself.
After Dion, the other
real winner is Gerard Kennedy. The political capital gained by Dion in
Montreal is current, but Kennedy’s is only potential. He has established
himself as a national leader wellpoised for the next run, if he keeps
working as hard as he did during the campaign, if he learns French well
enough to be a factor in Quebec, and if he smooths relationships in
Ontario, especially with some of his former colleagues at Queen’s Park.
Ken Dryden has gained at
the end of the process. He has been able to promote his views, his
communications skills have improved and he has established a base in the
Liberal Party. Has he increased his potential as a future leadership
candidate? Like Ignatieff, I believe Dryden’s age will be a factor.
As for Joe Volpe, I can
say that at the end of the process, he is less feared than at the
beginning and more liked at the end.
Saying more about his
leadership stunt wouldn’t be about him but about some media and
journalists, and the former executive in charge of the Liberal Party
operations. As I said at the beginning, we are in a Christmas mood and I
have to take a rain check with those individuals. At the end, he lost
some, and gained some. In the balance, he might be even, even though he
has forfeited any future leadership ambitions.
Scott Brison and Martha
Hall Findlay got, I hope, exactly what they were looking for: an
opportunity to establish themselves in the Liberal Party, increase their
credibility within the organization and to be ready for future
engagements. I did not completely understand why Brison supported Bob
Rae on the second ballot, but I believe he played his cards right.
Hall Findlay has to be
praised for what she did and her presence on the stage in Montreal among
seven male candidates was a constant reminder that political
organizations talk about women (and minorities) but, at the end of the
day, politics is still a white male-dominated business.
Victories and defeats are
more than just numbers. Behind each candidate there are people who must
be praised for their hard work and dedication. However, even amongst
them, there are winners and non winners.
Let’s take a pick at the
names behind the scenes of the four major candidates, starting with
Dion’s camp. The top winner is Mark Marissen. He has been able to
establish himself as a successful national organizer. He succeeded in
recycling himself from a Martinite into a neutral powerbroker respected
in all camps. Also very much appreciated is the work done by George
Young, a true Liberal, Andrew Bevan, and André Lamarre, the people who
handled Dion’s communications. Part of the team was also Tim Murphy,
former chief of the staff in Paul Martin’s PMO. Murphy, however, played
a peripheral role, missing, in my opinion, an opportunity to be more
involved.
As for the MPs, the good
work by Bryon Wilfert has to be noted. His political potential, with
Dion’s victory, has increased. Dion, however, owes a lot to a very
active group of women MPs and former MPs like Colleen Beaumier, Bonnie
Brown, Sue Barnes, Eleni Bakopanos and Paddy Torsney. Without them, his
campaign would not have gotten off the ground.
In Michael Ignatieff
camp, praise must be given to the work done by communications guru Bob
Richardson. Had he been brought into the camp earlier, I’m sure many of
the blunders during the early Iggy campaign would have been avoided.
A winner is also Sen.
Grant Mitchell, a fine organizer, as well as MP Paul Zed, whose
contribution to the campaign has been invaluable, like policy adviser
Brad Davis. Good marks also for Ignatieff’s team on the floor in
Montreal, especially Leslie Church.
Non-winners? Well, Ian
Davey, and Iggy’s Quebec Lieutenant Denis Coderre. Davey decided too
soon to play in the big leagues and he was not ready. He has time to
prove himself in the future. Coderre took many risks supporting
Ignatieff against a Quebec native son. He lost and, more importantly, he
might have lost his opportunity to run for the leadership next time. Of
course, everybody says that the alternating process doesn’t exist in the
Liberal Party but, definitely the chances for another francophone
Liberal leader after Dion look very slim. Another non-winner is Sen.
David Smith, even though he delivered what he had promised: a bus load
of MPs supporting Ignatieff, his influence in the party has dramatically
reduced.
In the Bob Rae camp the
big non-winner is John Rae. He misread the anti-Rae sentiments in
Ontario and, after losing control of the party under Chrétien’s
leadership and seeming shocked at the defeat of his brother in Montreal,
raises questions about how close he is to the new reality of the Liberal
Party. Another non-winner is MP Maurizio Bevilacqua, not necessarily
because he did not support a winner candidate from the beginning, but
because he supported a candidate who was the symbol of all economic
theories he has always fought against. Some of his supporters are
confused.
There were some gains in
the Rae camp from organizer Raj Chahal. As for the Ontario Minister of
Finance, Greg Sorbara, he has gained because he was right when he
assessed Rae’s popularity in Canada, he has lost because he misread
Rae’s unpopularity in Ontario. This means that in the next 10 months he
has to focus more on the province and less on the nation. Good work in
Rae’s camp was also done by Alex Swann, press secretary, Sen. Mac Harb,
organizer, and Isabel Metcalfe.
Lastly, Kennedy’s camp:
the winners are the 10 MPs who stuck together until the end and,
basically, they chose the winner. Particularly efficient was MP Navdeep
Bains, who was very active within the South Asian delegates (however, it
looks like they are now fighting with each other). Also, there was a
good job by campaign manager Katie Telford, director of communications
Amanda Alvaro, and Bruce Young, the former Martinite who delivered B.C.
Another winner was Justin Trudeau. He took some risks and contributed to
shake up the convention.
