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Monday August 8 2006 |
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The fight
for the second ballot
by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES
Although there are 11 candidates in the race for the leadership of the
Liberal Party, it looks like it all comes down to three camps, and only two
of them seem to have potential for growth. Of course, this scenario does not
consider the possibility of Frank McKenna entering the race.
It is widely accepted that none of the 11 candidates for the
leadership of the Liberal Party has enough support to win the race on the
first ballot at the Dec. 3 Montreal convention, so they need support from
other camps in order to get more then 50% of the delegates votes..
There are some in the Michael Ignatieff camp flirting with the
idea, but even one of his strategists admits that “the best we can really
expect is support between 40 to 44 per cent after the first ballot. “ So,
although there are four months to go before the leadership convention,
candidates and organizers have already started unofficial talks, trying to
secure each other’s support in case one is bumped out.
The environment is, of course, very volatile and might change in
the future; however, after extensive conversation with members of most of
the candidates, we can say that three leading groups are shaping up at this
time.
Let’s start with the one revolving around Bob Rae.
His strategists are aware that Rae, in order to get to the top,
“needs much more than he has now. “ For this reason they are talking (or
trying to talk) to the camps of Maurizio Bevilacqua, Stéphan Dion, Carolyn
Bennett and Ken Dryden. There are no talks at all with the camps of Michael
Ignatieff, Scott Brison or Joe Volpe. There are limited approaches to some
of Gerard Kennedy’s key supporters.
Rae’s attempts to get support from other camps don’t look very
successful.
Bennet is seen a Kennedy’s supporter, while Bevilacqua seems to
be heading towards Ignatieff.
If there are no dramatic changes in the next few months, it
looks like there is no room for growth for Rae beyond what he has already
gathered. His major problem, of course, is in Ontario, while in Québec, even
if he got the support of key strategists in Jean Chrétien’s machine, that
machine has lost its engine: there are no organizers. They consider Stéphan
Dion a rising star “and definitely “—says a Rae strategist— “he can be
considered the most successful candidate in the month of July. “ Despite
rumors of financial hardship, and some controversial positions on key
issues, the most optimistic about the future of their candidate are those
supporting Michael Ignatieff.
His strategists are talking intensively with other camps. The
action is twofold: through high-level campaign representatives and directly
with the grassroots.
They’re talking to all camps but two: Rae and Joe Volpe. They
are very confident about future support for Ignatieff from Brison and
Maurizio Bevilacqua.
They fear more and more Stéphane Dion, and are trying to get
some help from Gerard Kennedy’s people. They believe they can get some key
organizers after the first two ballots. It looks like there are serious
talks with the camps of Ken Dryden and Martha Hall Findlay. They don’t
expect much from Dion, and in fact are intimidated by his increasing
popularity.
The third group is more of an idea than a reality and could be
created with support from Kennedy, Volpe and Dion. Let me be more specific.
There are no direct talks between the three candidates even though I see a
kind of dialogue through the media developing between Volpe and Dion. The
former minister of Immigration, who was not considered a factor at the
beginning of the campaign, is not given a large of chance of winning but he
is more and more considered the king maker at the Montréal convention.
“The pundits were wrong about us at the beginning of the
campaign, they are wrong now, “ his strategists say.
Some supporters of Kennedy and Joe Volpe seem to have direct
lines of support set up in case there is a change in the political geography
of the race (I don’t believe the two candidates are directly involved with
one another at all but some community organizers are.) In the case that
Volpe will play the role of the king maker, and throw his support to the
winner at the convention, it might be to Stéphan Dion. It looks like there
are talks between the two camps and, according to some sources, Hall Findlay
might be part of this potentially, and now developing, third group. All of
this is, of course, highly speculative.
Things might change after September, when the delegates are
chosen; however, at the present time it looks like only two groups have
potential to grow: the one that is developing could push either Dion,
Kennedy or even Volpe into the leadership, and other the one is revolving
around Michael Ignatieff.
The latter might attract some minor candidates after first and
second ballot but their support will not be huge. That means that if
Ignatieff does not get more then 40 per cent on the first ballot, it will be
very hard for him to get to the top.
As for Rae, unless there a major shift in the next four months,
it looks like he has no room for growth.
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