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Monday Feb. 27 2006 |
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LIBERAL leadership race spinning into bad joke
by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES
If things don't start to
change, the Liberal Party of Canada might be forced to resort to the
"classified" section in their search for a new leader.
It seems that anyone who is unemployed‹ especially former MPs ‹has
a job opportunity in seeking the leadership of Her Majesty's Loyal
Opposition, with no experience required. The salary might not be appealing
to people like Frank McKenna, Brian Tobin, Allan Rock and John Manley, but
it's still a position with great potential.
The reality is that the Liberal Party, once a political powerhouse
that could always find the right strategy to hold on to power, is now in
such bad shape that it doesn't even know the difference between government
and opposition, left and right, or right and wrong.
Since Pierre Trudeau had the "walk in the snow" exactly 22 years
ago (Feb. 29, 1984), the Liberals are confused about what leadership is all
about.
They preferred John Turner over Jean Chrétien in 1984 and were
decimated.
They had it right in 1990 with Jean Chrétien, the person who
brought them to government and held on for 10 years. But they changed their
mind and unceremoniously kicked him out, believing that Paul Martin was
their new messiah. We know what happened after that.
The difference between now and when Pierre Trudeau left is huge.
Back then, the Liberals were only looking for a new leader. But now, they
are looking for a party that only exists on paper.
In fact, during their 13 years in power, thanks to the divisions on the
right, they did not realize the seriousness of their problems. Power is like
a drug: it makes you believe that everything is beautiful, even the Gomery
Inquiry.
After Jan. 23, the drug trip ended and reality hit the Libs like a
ton of bricks. Frank McKenna, Brian Tobin, Allan Rock and John Manley were
the first ones to wake up. They didn't want to leave comfortable lives to
risk entering a party that was divided, in debt, and possibly stuck in
opposition for years.
They could all see the catastrophic situation in the party. So
Frank, Brian, Allan and John unceremoniously bowed out: Sorry, we're busy.
Now we're left with a party in disarray. The remaining potential
candidates were labeled (incorrectly, in my opinion) "the B Team." The
strategists seem to be sitting on the fence, while the rank-and-file members
are confused.
"When they [A team] dropped out, they left a bitter taste in the
mouth of many people," one Liberal strategist told The Hill Times last week.
Another prominent Liberal organizer complained that he had made a
fool of himself supporting one of the potential candidates who bowed out.
"You can rest assured that I will not commit myself again for a long time."
They exposed those endorsing them, publicly or privately, and they
were embarrassed. With all the uncertainty, the Liberals seem to have
adopted "wait and see" as their new motto.
For some, this might be a risky strategy, because it leaves the
door open for a rival to jump into the car of one potential candidate and
get a head start. In politics, timing is everything and being in the right
place at the right time can be the difference between success and failure.
In the last few weeks, Liberal "operatives" have not been making
commitments, but are monitoring each other very carefully, with hundreds of
phone calls going back and forth on a daily basis.
One of the elements used to justify their inactivity is the need to
defend regional interests. Many organizers are not closing the door to
potential candidates, with a scripted excuse: "But, you know, Joe Blow from
my area has some interest and I can't say no to him. If he/she pulls out,
I'll be with you." The standard answer allows the confused Liberal to stall
before making a commitment.
I never understood the particular qualities seen in Frank McKenna
or Brian Tobin to be a good Prime Minister for this country. However, they
had name recognition because of their previous careers and that was enough
to be considered a future Prime Minister of Canada.
Napoleon used to say, "Give me medals, and I will win all the wars
you want." This is important in an era when a 10-second clip can make all
the difference in the career of a politician.
So, the stranded Liberal organizers are waiting for that 10-second
clip that might give them the answer from the potential candidates of a "B
team." But no one is asking any of the candidates why they want to be Prime
Minister.
So, let's take a closer look at who the members of this "B" team
are.
There are no potential candidates from the West. Liberals from
Western Canada will likely go with someone who has deep roots in the party.
This is particularly an important issue following the David Emerson saga.
Saskatchewan, after Ralph Goodale, has no real organization. "They
are orphans," an organizer told The Hill Times last week. "They have no
local leaders able to convert others to be Liberal."
In Manitoba, with the defeat of Reg Alcock, it looks like the
Sahara desert for the Liberals.
In Atlantic Canada there is the potential candidacy of Scott Brison.
He is definitely bright and respected, considering the short militancy in
the Liberal Party. Still, Liberals have some problems with him because his
roots are not deep. It looks like some of his meetings last week in Alberta
were not very successful. New Brunswick Liberal MP Dominic LeBlanc is
mulling over running.
In Quebec, there are three names flying around: Denis Coderre,
Stéphane Dion and Martin Cauchon. Mr. Cauchon seems to be dropping out and
Mr. Dion is well-respected, but his organization is non-existent. He has
alienated the former Jean Chrétien supporters and, of course, he has no use
for Martin's machine in the province. Mr. Coderre seems to be the one with
more clout, although the former citizenship and immigration minister might
be more interested in being the king-maker rather than the king.
Then there's Ontario. In this case, it would be easier to list the
people not interested (me and my neighbor) and then all those who have their
names floating around.
Because of space limitations, and out of respect for the
history of Liberal leadership races that have included people like Wilfrid
Laurier, I limited my list of names to people who directly or indirectly
threw their names into the race a long time ago, ignoring the numerous
Johnnie-Come-Latelies.
The first potential candidate, in alphabetical order, is
Carolyn Bennett.
She is on the left of the party and it looks like she is more interested in
mobilizing the elements of this sector of the party. She might join forces
with John Godfrey.
Maurizio Bevilacqua: he has a good organization skills, is
respected in many business quarters and he might benefit from the withdrawal
of Martin Cauchon from Québec. It is hard to quantify his strength because
it looks like he is running a discreet, almost esoteric campaign. He might
be the underdog and could surprise many pundits, but he might also be
disappointing. He's holding his cards very close to his chest.
Ken Dryden is intelligent and respected and has a vision that many
Liberals would share. I had some good and in-depth conversations with him.
The negative side is his problem with the 10-second clip. His potential
might explode if he can get rid of his image of "Canadian Tired."
Michael Ignatieff has been openly active in recent months. He looks
to be the "frontrunner" because of his credentials, but he is the one with
less space for growth because of his credentials. He is an academic who took
some controversial positions in the past. He has the support from most of
the "elite," orphans of Manley's and Rock's campaign, but he's been absent
from the country for 20 years, and has some leftovers from Paul Martin's
"board."
John Godfrey: see Carolyn Bennett.
Belinda Stronach: the number of friends she has made is equal to the number
of her enemies. Especially because she is considered to be too close to the
members of the Martin "board." She might appeal to some members of the party
and there is no doubt that she has ambition to lead the party. She has
already started to put together an organization but she has to work hard on
the "French factor."
Joe Volpe: he is respected in the party, has good organizational
skills and academic credentials. He has already a potential network around
the country and is respected by many in the ethno-cultural community. He is
fluent in English, French and Italian. This is a good thing, as long as he
tries harder not to use his language skills for too long and replaces the
10-minute clip with the 10-second clip.
How long will it take before they become the "A" team?
According to Michael Marzolini, the influential president of
Pollara, "it is imperative for the Liberal Party to put the leadership
convention off until the beginning of 2007." Marzolini believes that "the
party needs a lot of time to talk about what they believe in."
Meantime, the party isn't helping any of those hopeful candidates,
since it hasn't set any dates for the leadership race or convention.
When I asked Dennis Mills, the former Liberal MP from Toronto-Danforth,
if he was running, he answered: "What race? I did not hear that one was
announced. Paul Martin has not resigned yet and he is still running the
party." |
