It
has always been taken for granted that the so-called “ethnic” vote goes to
the Liberal Party. But is this still the case today? There’s no earthquake,
but a steady shift is taking place in Canada.
Liberals still
enjoy healthy support, but the Bloc in Quebec and the Conservative Party in
the rest of Canada are moving quite fast in breaking the Liberal
stranglehold on the ethnic vote. They’re having some success.
It has never
been statistically proven, but looking at the demographic composition of
areas where the Liberals win support, the support for the Liberals within
the ethnic communities is more than an assumption.
For the most
part, most of the heavily “ethnic” populated areas have a Liberal
representative in the provincial legislatures and the federal Parliament.
And most of the
representatives, especially in urban areas like Toronto, Montreal and
Vancouver, have a Liberal public office holder in the House of Commons.
To get a better
idea of this support, all you have to do is look at the 1984 federal
election when the Liberals were wiped out of power, but were able to retain
their political dignity only because they were able to keep all the seats in
heavily-populated “ethnic” areas.
In 1995, they
got the attention of then premier Jacques Parizeau who blamed the “ethnics
and money” for the defeat in the referendum.
He was so angry
that the “ethnics” forced him to retain Canadian citizenship, that he tried
to revoke theirs and the legitimacy of their vote.
Things,
however, are slowly changing.
The first sign
in Ontario was detected in 1995 when then Conservative leader Mike Harris
was able to elect four MPPs of Italian origin, some even in the Greater
Toronto Area. Before then, an Italian Canadian Conservative MPP was a
political oxymoron.
In Quebec it’s
the same story. The difference is that the alternative now is the
“sovereignist” movement. The “ethnics”don’t want Quebec to separate, but
they’re not afraid of the “sovereignists” and don’t trust the Liberal
“federalists.” They’re looking for an alternative: “They are federalists,”
said one strategist,“ but are not afraid of the ‘separatists.’” From the
many conversations I’ve had in the last few weeks with friends and community
leaders in Quebec, it’s safe to say that the “ethnic vote” in Quebec is not
solidly in favour of the Liberal Party. Although the Liberals still enjoy
some solid support.
Talking to them
was a kind of déjà-vu of the conversations I had with community leaders in
1995 when members of the Italian- Canadian community were considering the
Conservative option. At that time, they were talking discreetly about the
idea, kind of like they were about to betray a life partner.
I was corrected
many times, when I addressed them as “separatists” and told to use
“sovereignists.” Not that they did not know the difference before, but they
now try to part away from the Liberal federalist language.
The only one I
spoke to in Quebec who agreed to speak on-the-record was Nino Colavecchio,
who is very involved in the Italian Canadian community and, until last
month,was the president of the Canadian Italian National Congress.
It was he who
negotiated with the Liberal government last month the “compensation package”
for the redress to the internment of hundreds of Italian Canadian during the
Second World War.
Once very close
to then minister Alfonso Gagliano (their relationship ended a long time
ago), he is now officially a member of the Party Québécois and supported the
new provincial leader, André Bosclair.
“I believe it
is time that the Italian- Canadian community is part of the entire political
spectrum in Quebec and, in order to do that,” said Colavecchio, “you don’t
have to be necessarily Liberal.” So, why is this slow but steady change
within minorities in Quebec shifting away from the Liberals? There are many
reasons.
With the old
communities, like the Jewish, Italian and Greek, the support for the Liberal
Party is still consistent “but this is true mostly for the old people.” The
young generation, said one political strategist, is less convinced and needs
to be courted. The Bloc Québécois is making bigger inroads with the new
immigrants, especially with Hispanics from Central and South America (mainly
because they are close to the union movement in their country and unions in
Quebec are close to the sovereignists).
The new
generations of new Canadians are not reserved for the Liberal vote. “Just
take a look at Pierre Pettigrew’s riding. It’s an ethnic riding and still
Mr. Pettigrew is going to have serious problems,” said the same strategist.
However, the
ethnic voters aren’t switching just because of Liberal disrespect and the
fact they feel betrayed, they’re also switching because the sovereignists
are changing their attitude by talking to them rather than fighting with
them like Parizeau did. Ever since 1995 the Bloc Québécois has understood
that, without the ethnic vote they would never be able to achieve anything
lasting. So, Gilles Duceppe has started a new approach by courting the
ethnics and by trying to support their initiatives.
For example,
Duceppe has strongly supported the Italian Canadian community request for
the RAI broadcasting demand in Canada and the right to Italian-Canadians
with dual citizenship to elect members to the Italian Parliament.
“There is a big
evolution taking place within the ethnic communities,” said another
community leader, “the first immigrants were steadfastly federalists who
vote for the Liberals. Nothing is changing, but their children are not
necessarily following the same pattern.” The same source said, “There is a
consistent support for sovereignists with the Greek and Portuguese
communities.” New immigrants from the Arab countries are taking the same
approach and, as we have seen last week, their federation has shifted away
from the Liberals and has officially supported the NDP in Quebec.
Of course, it
is difficult to translate in electoral votes those changes. Nonetheless,
many in the Montreal area are predicting “serious problems” in the following
Liberal ridings: Pierre Pettigrew’s, Liza Frulla’s, Pablo Rodriguez’, Denis
Coderre’s and Jean Lapierre’s. “We are going to have a clear indication of
the seriousness of the political damage for the Liberals on Dec. 12, with
the provincial by-election in the federal riding of Jean Lapierre,” said one
strategist.
