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Monday Oct. 17, 2005 |
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me tarzan, you
jane
by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES
The Tarzans of Canadian politics who occupy the Langevin Block are busy
these days trying to locate the lianas in the jungle they have created to
get ready for their next big jump: the upcoming election. The question is:
will it be now or in the spring? After flirting with the idea that a fall
election might have given a new majority to what is left of the Liberal
Party, they must have concluded that reality is different when you don’t
smoke funny cigarettes.
From my usual reliable sources,
The Hill Times
has learned that results from internal polls conducted by the Conservatives
and the Liberals generally agree that the gap between the two parties has
narrowed to five or six points. To make matters worse, the Liberals show no
signs of growth in Quebec.
In fact, things there are deteriorating.
Mind you I don’t believe these results tell what the voting
preferences will be come voting day; however, they do illustrate that the
electorate is very volatile.
And here our Tarzans’ need for a vine comes into the equation:
they are ready to jump at any opportunity to postpone the election to next
spring.
They know that the PMO has lost control over the caucus. During
the last caucus meeting, Liberal MP Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan, Ont.)
received a thunderous applause for lecturing the Prime Minister on a Quebec
issue.
Furthermore the Liberal Tarzans are barely able to keep the
Cabinet together. It’s widely known that policy is generated, promoted and
handled by the people in the PMO; ministers are only expected to step in to
pick up the pieces and clean up the messes they have created.
And, as one Liberal strategist close to the Tarzans told
The Hill Times,
“We cannot use the word ‘loyalty’ because they erased it from the Liberal
vocabulary. ” So, considering that the Tarzans do not have liana at hand to
avoid a bad tumble, they are trying hard to avoid the next jump, a fall
election.
“If we survive the first week of November,” says a strategist, “we
are ok ‘til March.” Unfortunately for them they don’t quite have all the
necessary vines in their hands.
Let’s see why.
The crucial event is Nov. 1, the day Judge John Gomery will make
public his first report on the sponsorship inquiry.
Most likely there will be nothing new in this report, but the
emotional reaction will be powerful, almost like the one we witnessed in
April when Judge Gomery lifted the embargo on Jean Brault’s testimony.
First, the last Monday available before Christmas is Dec. 12. I
don’t believe anyone would dare to send Canadians to the polls on the 19th,
right in the middle of the drink-a-ton-season, as a former American
ambassador to Canada called our pre-Christmas activities.
Then, since the election will take place on a Monday and as it
will last 36 days following the drop of the writ, it would need to be called
no later than the fourth of November. That means on or shortly after the
presentation of the Gomery report. Those few days are the nightmare for the
Tarzans.
With the aid of Government House Leader, Tony Valeri, they have
already found one liana: the first opposition day in November will be
available only after the fourteenth.
Only then will the opposition have an opportunity to provoke an
election, resorting to the so-called “concurrence motion”.
This is a vote in the House on a committee motion containing a
statement of non-confidence in the government.
However, even in the unlikely event that such a motion is approved
by the House, the government will not necessarily resign. This is what
happened already last spring: the government was defeated on a “concurrence
motion” but the Prime Minister did not resign.
Anything is possible, but it looks like that the Tarzans may have
found at least one liana to carry them into the next spring.
Of course, at that time the political environment could be the
same, if not worse. The Gomery report will still be around, the economy may
be showing signs of stress and the provinces, particularly Ontario and
Quebec will be increasing their pressure on the federal government as they
move closer to their own elections.
So, we might ask, why delay something that will not improve and,
if anything, will worsen? It’s simple: three more months at the top are
priceless. Many things can happen, many things can be done. Three more
months, including the Christmas festivities, during which they can still
enjoy the ride, flexing muscles and screaming from the tops of the trees of
power: me Tarzan, you Jane. |
