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Monday FEBRUARY 28, 2005 |
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The most dangerous non-event in the Liberal Party
by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES (Versione
italiana)
Be
prepared. This is going to be the most booooring leadership review
convention the Liberals have had in years. Liberals are in no mood to
celebrate, they are in no mood to fight. The Liberals, or, those few who
will actually show up, are going to this convention with the same spirit
they might go to a fundraiser to save trees in the Arctic.
This eerie mood is reflected in the attitude of many people I
interviewed in the last 10 days on the subject. People, who only a few
months ago were eager to express their opinions for or against Paul Martin
or Jean Chrétien, now ignore over the question. These Libs would rather talk
to you about their successes in the private sector, or, if they really want
to engage you, about their kids' chickenpox.
Up until a year ago the Liberal Party happily was split into two
groups: the Martinites and the Chrétienites. Today, there are happy
Martinites riding in limo with the gas tank red light always on, and then
there are the Martinites waiting for the limo ride. All the others, are in
political limbo waiting for something to happen.
In this environment you will always find someone telling you, on
record, that, "We are still one family with some problems, but a family
nonetheless" and that kind of stuff.
The only one willing to tell you what he or she really feels,
are Mr. and Ms. Unnamed Source, or the Off the Record Source.
Here's what one unnamed Liberal sourced told The Hill Times in
the last few days. "You don't have to make comments, just look at the
number of delegates showing up at the convention," or, "There is a profound
apathy and lack of interest, which is very dangerous for the future of our
party."
As of Hill Times press time last Thursday, it appeared as if the
number of Liberal delegates will be 1,500, "but only if they are lucky" said
one source, who expects less then a 1,000 to show up." And one of them is
Warren Kinsella." It is a number that would make also the late Joe Foti
upset for his famous annual summer Liberal picnics. (The Liberals said "well
over 2,000" delegates will be at this weekend's biennial.)
In fact, more than 5,000 people are eligible for the event
considering that each riding can send 12 delegates plus the MPs and the ex
officio delegates. A few years ago, hundreds of people were showing up for
meetings to choose delegates with at least two slates. Now, in some ridings
five people showed up to chose 12 delegates. "There is no doubt that the
Liberal Party," said another Liberal source, "is less and less the party of
the people and becoming the party of the elite and the lobbyists. We can
call it the Liberal convention, but there will be few Liberals in the
convention hall."
Of course, this is not necessarily Prime Minister Paul Martin's
fault: he is trying hard to make the minority government work but sometimes
it seems that the longevity of his government depends more on the
surroundings, than the effectiveness of their own plan.
Look what happened last week on the U.S. missile defence
initiative.
The new ambassador to Washington, D.C., Frank McKenna said,
"We're in," but then the Prime minister said, "We're out" and the minister
of Defence said in the House, "There is no contradiction." Sometimes I
wonder if these Liberals are smoking funny cigarettes.
However, the surroundings will protect his government at least
until the end of the year.
"You will not have another election until Dec. 31," said one
Liberal source.
The reason is simple: only after that date will the Liberal
Party get $8-million from the government, according to the new law that
regulates the financing of political organizations. It looks like the party
that's boasting about the capacity to fix the financial mess of the country,
is unable to handle its own finances. The Libs seem to be $10 million down.
This means that at the end of the year they'll have $8-million
of new money, plus another $5-million to $6-million from fundraisers: "You
will see a lot of them," said one other Liberal source.
But, as I was saying, the reason for this apathy is not to be
blamed only on Paul Martin's organization. A leadership review convention
without a real push to review the leadership means that there is only the
convention left; and it's a policy convention of a party leading a minority
government as well as a convention where there are no reasons to celebrate
and no will to fight. So it's not a convention.
The question is: where are the people against the present leader
and, most of them, very close to the former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien?
"We will never do to Mr. Martin what he did Mr. Chrétien," said one Liberal
insider. And they mean it. Even though you might wonder who would be the
alternative to Mr. Martin. At the present time, however, it seems there
aren't too many takers.
The Libs may have to put the job posting in the classified ads
section of a daily newspaper. The announcement would sound like this:
"Beautiful career opportunity; salary around $250,000, four-year contract
renewable, personal jet, and, as a bonus, a residence located at 24 Sussex
Dr. in Ottawa."
Of course, there are many names being tossed around, including
former ministers John Manley, Maurizio Bevilacqua and Martin Cauchon.
According to one Liberal, "they are working very hard to create an
organization, but definitely waiting for Martin's leadership to fizzle out
by itself." There's also Citizenship and Immigration Minister Joe Volpe, but
I'm sure he would be happy to spend the rest of his political career in Paul
Martin's Cabinet until the age of 70.
There are also rumours that other prominent Liberals are
crisscrossing the country building organizations without being concerned
about who the new leader is going to be: "They are building a car for now,
they will find the driver later."
So there will be no fireworks at this week's convention "but
this is going to be the most dangerous non-event for the future of the
Liberal Party," said the Liberal source. "The disconnect between the Liberal
Party and the grassroots might become irreversible." The elections, said an
insider, are won with the work of a lot of people, especially volunteers:
"They have always been the strength of the Liberal Party." So, there will be
no election this year (unless by accident) because Mr. Martin believes he is
going to be in a better position next year and the leader of the opposition
Stephen Harper hopes that Mr. Martin will be in a worse position. Both of
them will also have millions more dollars in their coffers, but the
"disconnect" with the volunteers will be the deciding factor in choosing the
next resident of 24 Sussex Dr. in Ottawa. |
