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|Monday Oct. 11, 2004 |
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who wants
an early election?
In the Roman Empire, when they wanted to find
the culprit responsible for a particular action or another, they
would ask a simple question: Cui prodest? In Latin it means,
who is gaining from it?
You might ask the same question today in Ottawa because the most
popular question these days on Parliament Hill is: when will we be
going to the polls? And the second most popular second is: will the
Governor General play along by sending federal politicians to the
polls, or, will she explore other avenues?
So I'll apply the Latin savvy theory: who gains from an early
election?
This is a tricky question because the answer is influenced more by
the position the members occupy within their political organization,
than their belonging to the political organization itself.
Everyone knows the political leaders now in Ottawa are living on
borrowed time. Prime Minister Paul Martin, Conservative Leader
Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Jack Layton know they don't have the
full confidence of their members; nonetheless, all their members
believe that the leaders deserve another shot at it.
However, this also means that the sooner there's another election,
the better the chances there are to get rid of some of the party
leaders.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois has a high number of seats, but their
fortunes are not based on their performance, but on the misfortunes
of others. Gilles Duceppe did nothing wrong two years ago when his
party was on the brink of extinction; at the same time he did
nothing terribly great to make his party the most successful in the
last election. The Bloc is the litmus paper of Canadian politics.
This means that Harper won't do anything to provoke an early
election, at least not before next March because he needs to
solidify his relations with his new party members, prepare the right
policies and establish himself as the leader of the Conservative
Party, not the leader of Alliance with a new hat.
Layton has made it clear he wants to enjoy the view of the House
from inside, especially after a long wait outside and a long and
tough battle against the popular former Liberal MP Dennis Mills for
the Toronto-Danforth, Ont., riding.
Furthermore, he's not too eager to engage in another fight in
Toronto Danforth any time soon against Mills. Layton's long response
in the House last week to the Throne Speech on the composition of
his riding and the obvious sucking up to the ethno-cultural
communities, says a lot about his concerns in the riding.
That leaves Paul Martin: will he do the best to make it work? It's a
complicated question because there are many elements involved. Since
the Conservatives aren't ready, the Liberals' popularity in Quebec
is on the rise and the Gomery Inquiry is on the way, Martin might be
tempted to "roll the dice" sooner rather than later.
But this, in my opinion, is a mistake: his party is not in any
better shape than the Conservatives. In fact, if the Tories see the
light at the end of the tunnel, then the Liberals see it as a
beginning with no hope in sight. His people have damaged
relationships with many fellow Liberals beyond repair and, short of
anything but a convincing and deep shakeup of the so-called "board,"
Martin will face the next election with half of his party sitting on
the sideline enjoying the show.
The "take no prisoner," arrogant, and confrontational attitude used
during the leadership race seems to have been exported into the
government and how they deal with the opposition parties. Basically,
the governing Liberals see it like this: we have a plan, it's up to
you to vote for or against us. They want to govern by pretending
they have a majority; which is something they don't have.
In the end, I believe that there is no plan to crush the government
any time soon. However, with so many snipers ready to shoot and
leaders not in full control of their respective caucuses, the House
of Commons is starting to look more like Toronto City Council than
the federal Parliament of Canada.
If there is no change in attitude, I believe that a defeat of the
government will occur sooner rather than later, and not by design,
but by "accident."
And this brings us to the second question: what will Governor
General Adrienne Clarkson do? Will she send them back to the people,
or she will explore other possibilities?
Usually it is the government that asks the GG to dissolve
Parliament. But in a minority environment, does the government still
have that power? Is the Governor General going to respond to a
minority government or to a majority in the Parliament? I'm no
constitutional expert and the GG has good constitutional experts
helping her to cope with this dilemma.
However, constitutional experts aside, I feel comfortable mainly
because a person like Adrienne Clarkson is there in such a critical
moment. She is competent and wise, and I'm sure she will make, when
the time comes, the best decision in the interests of the Canadian
people. |
