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|Monday JULY 12, 2004 |
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Some tough decisions
for PM's Cabinet-making picks
TORONTO--If British Columbia is supposed to
get five Cabinet ministers and the province only elected eight
Liberal MPs on June 28, how many of the 75 Liberal MPs elected in
Ontario will get into Cabinet?
I was asked this surreptitious question last week by an Ontario MP
who had just finished reading a newspaper story on the "two more
ministers for British Columbia."
Of course, it's speculation but, if the story is true, it would be a
good idea for Prime Minister Paul Martin to have a proper answer to
his Ontario MPs on this salient question.
I have spoken to some of the just confirmed Liberal Members of
Parliament in Ontario and you can be rest assured that their
aspirations are running very high. Of course, you won't hear a blip
on the record because in politics the only sentiment more powerful
than ambition is hope.
But political hope will last only up to the expected Cabinet shuffle
next week and only for few of them will their hope actually become a
reality. For the vast majority, however, there is going to be
disappointment.
And this potentially deadly combination of disappointment and
ambition spells some serious problems for Mr. Martin.
It's not unusual for many MPs to be disappointed after a shuffle,
but the Prime Minister has some tools to keep them quiet.
Former prime minister Jean Chrétien, for example, had over 20 MPs to
play with. Mr. Martin already has 20 less than he needs. The only
tool in his hands is the threat of a new election and not many MPs
want to go back to the people too soon. This cannot, however, hold
for a long time.
He has to deal with them as soon as possible and definitely before
he starts dealing with the other parties and preparing the program
for the government.
In all fairness to Mr. Martin, he needs to deal with the parts of
the country where his party is in difficulty which is British
Columbia, Québec and Central Canada. If he wants to change Liberal
fortunes in these areas, he needs to intervene heavily and
immediately.
That's why there are rumours of two more ministers in British
Columbia coming into Cabinet in a province where only eight Liberal
MPs were elected.
But this, of course, doesn't sit well with Ontario MPs who believe
that the representation of the province in the Cabinet will shrink
further.
With more than 50 per cent of Liberal MPs in Parliament from
Ontario, there is a widespread notion that it is this province, that
has allowed the Liberal party to retain, once again, the government.
However, it looks like that this time, contrary to what happened in
the past, there are not many MPs ready to sacrifice their ambitions
to help the party to regain the majority.
And it's for this reason that the preparation of the new government
will take more time than usual. In Québec, the scenario is not more
reassuring.
In Québec, the Prime Minister knew he could not win with the old
Chrétien team, but also he now knows that he can't win with the new
one either. He is facing the need to harmonize the new with the old,
without resurrecting the phantom of the past. However, with Justice
John Gomery's inquiry into the sponsorship scandal around the
corner, it will be difficult to pretend that nothing happened in the
past, especially if he is going to have some of his ministers called
to testify.
Furthermore, there is the strained relationship between some of his
ministers and MPs, like Stéphane Dion, and his new lieutenant in
Québec, Jean Lapierre. He has to find a balance within his Québec
team, a balance that has to receive the tacit approval of their new
partner in government: the Bloc Québecois. It's not an easy task. If
he fails, there are already some wondering which event will come
first: a new election or the Liberal leadership review.
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