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|Monday JUNE 14, 2004 |
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Conservatives have
momentum. Are we sure?
Conservatives
have momentum, the Liberals are in trouble, the NDP is surviving and
the Bloc is back from the ashes. Right? Is this really the true
snapshot of the present political environment? Well, take a look for
yourself.
Any
election campaign is a “game” with three players involved:
politicians, media and voters. The snapshot I was just talking about
is only the interpretation from media and politicians, but for the
voters the dynamic is different.
In
fact, looking at the numbers from the latest polls, I don’t see any
momentum for the Conservatives, I do see problems for the Liberals,
and I see the NDP and the Bloc as a parking lot for dissatisfied
Liberals. Moreover, I see the Green Party becoming a political force
in the minds of voters, despite strenuous efforts made by media and
“institutional” politicians to ignore it.
Aside from the popularity of the Green Party, what we see these days
is the return to the conventional political environment before the
split on the right provoked by Preston Manning’s Reform Party. That
split, however, is still hounding the Conservatives because the Bloc
is still alive in Québec. Even in the 2000 election, the Alliance
and the Conservative parties received a 6.2 and 5.6 percentage of
the popular vote in Québec, for a combined total of 11.8 per cent.
Now, combined, according to the last Ipsos Reid poll, the
Conservatives and the NDP “register low on the federal radar screen
in this province.” This means that the Conservatives will hardly
form a majority government without regaining support in Québec. It
is not a coincidence that some are talking about a minority
Conservative government with the support of the Bloc
However, it’s the end of the split in the rest of Canada that
creates the illusion of momentum for the new Conservative Party. The
old PC had the support of 43 per cent of popular vote in 1988, and
50 per cent in 1984. A percentage that is much higher than the
meager 31 per cent of the present “momentum.” In fact, in 1980 they
had 32 per cent and were defeated by the swan song of Pierre
Trudeau, and gained only a minority government in 1979 with Joe
Clark with 35 per cent of the support. Furthermore, in the 2000
election, the Conservative and Alliance votes combined was 37.7 per
cent, well beyond the present 31 per cent. What’s missing with the
Conservatives? It is the vote in Québec, where the split is still
alive because of the Bloc.
This
means that when you talk about “Conservative momentum” you are only
talking about the “Liberals’ problems.” The only time in recent
years when the Grits were in the low thirties to high twenties in
public opinion polls, was in 1988. At that time, the Libs were at 31
per cent while the Conservatives were at 43 per cent.
In
1984, the Libs were at 28 per cent and the Conservatives were at 50
per cent. It was way back in 1958, when the federal Liberals were
below 30 per cent. And, if you look at the Liberal environment in
1984, the problem was the inheritance of the previous Liberal
government of Pierre Trudeau and an election characterized by the
mistakes made by the new leader, John Turner, who “had an option”
and did not take it. In 1988, it was the in-fighting within the
Liberal Party. In 2004, the Liberals have both problems: the
inheritance of the preceding Liberal government, similar to 1984 and
the internal split of 1988.
Going back to the current numbers, you see the Liberals missing
almost eight per cent of the vote compared to the 2000 election.
This vote is
going to the NDP in the rest of the country and to the Bloc in
Québec. The Conservatives are only taking what was theirs before the
split.
In
fact, in Ontario, the Alliance and PC combined in the 2000 election
had 38 per cent, basically the same support they are enjoying now.
Most of the support they are losing is parked with the NDP. There
are two combined reasons: Stephen Harper’s action to earn the
Conservative vote is working despite the negative campaign from the
Liberals.This campaign was undermined by the Ontario provincial
budget.
Voters are upset, so the red Tories have decided to accept the
leadership of Stephen Harper. It’s no coincidence that red Tories
are defecting to the Liberals in Alberta but not in Ontario. At the
same time left-leaning Liberals opened the door to the NDP and a
vast majority is still undecided.
I
don’t believe that the Liberals have lost any support on the right;
if anything, they gained in this area, even though marginally,
because of the actions of Joe Clark, John Herron and Scott Brison.
The problem for the Liberals is on the left. And it has nothing to
do with Jack Layton. The real problem for the Liberals is the
internal squabbling and the sponsorship program. The antagonizing
attitude of the new management has created a reservoir of malcontent
and the dispute over Sheila Copps’ nomination has given a political
base.
The
end result was that the new Liberal Party has moved to the right,
that it’s not democratic, that the new leadership is vindictive and
that it’s not trustworthy. That is where the votes are missing and
it has nothing to do with Stephen Harper. The united right has
pushed the Conservatives up, not the Liberals down
As
for the NDP, they’re only regaining part of the votes they lost in
the last three elections (8.5 in 2000, 11 in ’97 and six in ’93).
They are going back to the core vote they had when Ed Broadbent was
the leader (20.3 per cent in ’88, 18.8 per cent in ’84 and 19.8 per
cent in ’80)
What’s still missing is the support they have lost to the Green
Party. This political organization, the real surprise of this
election, is at seven per cent; this support comes in part from the
NDP, but they have also attracted some dissatisfied left-leaning
Liberals and Red Tories, especially in British Columbia. The Green
Party is also showing up higher in the polls in Québec
As
we see, it is still a very volatile environment and the debate will
have a huge impact on the outcome of the June 28 election. However,
it is not just the debate that will shape the next federal
government. It is also what the so called political strategists will
do in the next two weeks. This is especially important for the
Liberals. Of course there might be screw-ups from their opponent and
this will change the course of the election. This aside, I believe
that those who have more to lose, if they engage in a wrong
activity, are the Liberals
If
they try to save seats in Québec and in Ontario, at the same time,
they will fail on both fronts. The campaign they need in Ontario is
different, if not opposite, from what they need in Québec. They can
only hope to regain their vote from the left and it’s obvious that
their campaign won’t affect the Conservative vote: the low thirties
is the core support they have always enjoyed before the split. They
will get their vote back only if they reunite their party: that’s
why they left. That is the only reason they will come back. They’re
trying to achieve this by scaring the voters and by demonizing
Stephen Harper: they are wrong. The Liberals need an open message
from the people who were involved in the dispute: John Manley is a
good start, they also need people like Sheila Copps, Herb Dhaliwal
and, yes, Jean Chrétien. Of course, this will raise some eyebrows in
Québec but, according to the polls, the Liberal standings in La
Belle Province are damaged beyond repair already
The
return of Jean Chrétien can do nothing but some much-needed good.
Yes, there is a lot to swallow for the Martin boys in Ottawa. There
would be, however, much more to chew and swallow on June 29, if they
will fail to change the course of the campaign |
