|Monday April 4, 2004 |
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PAUL MARTIN AND THOMAS JEFFERSON
For voters, the government is kind of like their car: before they buy a new
one, they have to be utterly convinced that the old one is obsolete. The old
car is the outgoing government. The new car is the one being proposed by the
opposition parties.
But this time there's a twist: between the old car and the new car,
there's the possibility of a third choice: a second-hand car. And this is
the challenge for Paul Martin and his group: convince the electorate that he
has a brand new product, instead of a refurbished one.
Where is the electorate at the present time?
The only certainty is the fact that they want to change the old
car.
Everything else is speculation.
This is my take.
Immediately after the swearing in ceremony, the electorate was
convinced it had no choice but to buy a new car of the same brand. Martin's
Liberals were flying high in the polls because of the combination of trust
in the new leadership, and the awareness that there was no alternative. He
was perceived as a man of vision, and a shoo-in.
But things changed.
Today, Canadians are not convinced that Martin's car is a new one and, on
the horizon, they see the possibility of a real alternative: the new
Conservative Party.
It was the right choice at the beginning for Mr. Martin to sell his
government as a new car; unfortunately the sponsorship program, rightly or
wrongly, has changed that perception and I do not believe he will be able to
fix it.
The voters have made up their minds: they want a change. And the
polls conducted over the last two weeks confirm this desire.
Martin's handlers were hoping they had bottomed out and would start
to regain support. They stopped the bleeding, but there is not much blood
left in the body.
The only good news for Martin is that the electorate has not made
up its mind about the alternative. For the time being they have parked their
vote and will decide what to do during the next election campaign.
Ignoring the old government has not helped Martin to disassociate
himself from the previous administration: the more Canadians hate Chrétien's
government, the more Martin's Liberals can forget about winning the next
election.
I'm sure the political leaders, and, of course, Paul Martin,
hire expensive consultants and spend millions of dollars to analyze the
events and won't pay attention to someone like me who spends time talking to
gas station attendants, to his neighbours, and to his mother in law. If
Martin's handlers would do the same, they would hear that the focus of the
next campaign won't be on Paul Martin, but on Stephen Harper.
The first two weeks of the campaign will be crucial; only if the
new leader of the new Conservative Party doesn't gain the trust of the
voters, the electorate will go back and look at Paul Martin's Liberals.
Here is my free advice to Paul Martin and Stephen Harper.
Let's start with Harper first.
The new leader of the Official Opposition has to stop convincing
Canadians that there is a need for a change and Liberals are bad: Canadians
are already convinced of that, and, if they have some doubts, the media and
Liberals themselves will finish the job. Harper has to start presenting the
quality of the change, or if you like the quality of the new car. I
understand there was no time during the convention in Toronto to talk about
policies. But the Conservatives are mistaken if they think they can win
government by bashing at the Liberals. Canadians won't buy a pig in a poke.
Stockwell Day knows it.
My advice to the Liberals lies in the opposite initiatives.
If Harper is not fast enough in painting himself and his party in
the way Canadians like, Liberals can do it, their own way. At the same time,
they have to repatriate some of the things that the old Liberal government
did. There are many elements that can be used to their own benefit,
including the sponsorship program.
Thomas Jefferson, someone who used to think about democracy also
when sleeping, once said, that "a strict observance of the written laws is
doubtless one of the high duties of a good citizen, but it is not the
highest. The law of necessity, of self-preservation, of saving our country
when in danger, is of the highest obligation. To lose our country by a
scrupulous adherence to written law would be to lose the law itself."
I believe Canadians are ready to accept the actions of someone who
bends the laws to save the country. But if, in the process, some put money
in their own pockets, this is theft and they should be punished.
For Martin to say so is laudable, but to throw 10 years of Liberal
government in the garbage is a cop-out. And, if he will do so, he will be
severely punished.
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