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|Monday March 23, 2004 |
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HARPER'S RUBICON
by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES
(Versione italiana)
Stephen Harper was elected the first leader of the new Conservative Party on
Saturday, delivering a respectable defeat against Belinda Stronach and Tony
Clement, his two opponents, but there remains serious concerns about the
capacity of the new political organization to pose a serious threat to the
governing Liberal Party in the next election.
According to the numbers, Harperıs victory was clear and
convincing. He won on the first ballot with 55.5 per cent of the vote.
Stronach won 35 per cent and Clement came in at a distant third with 9.5 per
cent of the vote. The numbers also tell us that Harper was able to defeat
Stronach and Clement even in their own province of Ontario, with some
support in Quebec, and overcoming the geographic handicap that haunted the
former Canadian Alliance which was never able to go beyond the boundaries of
Manitoba.
The victory of Harper, however, must be also be put into proper context.
The inability of Tony Clement to be a serious contender has greatly damaged
Stronach, who had to face Harperıs well-oiled machine on her own and with
only 59 days of campaigning. Furthermore, Stronach was let down by the
people who promised her they would deliver Quebec and Ontario. Yes, they did
not have a lot of time on their hands, but they had in excess of $5-million
to come up with some more consistent support in these two provinces.
At the same time, Stronachıs defeat is not embarrassing, or fatal.
In fact, in only 59 days she accomplished a lot. She went from being the
candidate journalists mocked at the beginning of her campaign, to being a
credible candidate and an important player in the new organization with a
huge potential. If she is able to win her seat in the upcoming federal
election, and Mr. Harper will not take advantage of the magic moment the
Conservatives are enjoying and defeat the Liberals, we will hear from her
pretty soon.
The numbers may give Mr. Harper a clear victory, but however rosy
this picture may appear today for the new leader, it gets a little more
foggy if you consider some elements of his victory.
First, of the 250,000 members of the new Conservative Party, only
37 per cent cast ballots. Considering also the better organization Mr.
Harper was able to enjoy since the beginning, and the very little time
available to his opponents to organize, it could be easily argued that he
has been elected mainly by former Canadian Alliance supporters, whether they
were in Ontario or western Canadian provinces.
It might be the geographic boundaries that have disappeared; however, the
ideological unity is still to come. The party is united like two pieces of
broken china kept together with the crazy glue: you can still see the
dividing line.
Even the numbers show the split between the right wing supporting
Harper and the "Red Tories" around Stronach. The long face of many of them
in the hallway of the Metropolitan Convention Centre this weekend were very
eloquent. One Stronach supporter I talked to said he was obviously
disappointed, but not surprised.
So itıs not surprising, but now the members of the new Conservative Party
have to face a new political reality: that they will be led in the next
federal election by a leader whose name is Stephen Harper. The new leader
has to convince the Tories, or the former members of Progressive
Conservative Party of Canada, that this merger was not just a deal that
allowed the Tories to give it its brand name and the Canadian Alliance its
product.
These feelings were palpable in the crowd during the weekend,
especially during the shaky speech delivered by Alberta Premier Ralph Klein.
His intervention reinforced the conviction that the show was a "made in
Alberta Production" temporarily transplanted to Toronto. Kleinıs speech was
the clearest indication of this uneasy show of unity. The Liberals present
at the convention were quick to point this out: "What I hear this
afternoon,"
Revenue Minister Stan Keyes told The Hill Times while Klein was
speaking, "are all the things that make me feel a stronger Liberal."
Harper is, of course, cognizant of this problem and made a specific
reference in his speech to the Red Tories and talked about a "united party."
But he needs much more then a mention in the victory speech to
convince that he is not the leader of the Canadian Alliance any longer, and
is really the leader of the new Conservative Party. He and Peter MacKay have
been able to put together the memberships of the Conservatives, now itıs up
to Harper to put together the souls of the supporters.
There was another element of concern that was very much evident
during the weekend convention: the absence of minorities and, specifically,
visible minorities. They are usually a predominant presence in the Liberal
gatherings. Just recall the nomination meeting in Hamilton between the
Valeri and Copps camps. Lately, however, this participation was increasingly
evident in the former Conservative Party gatherings as well.
But visible minorities were not present at Torontoıs
Metro-Convention Centre and yet they represent almost the majority of the
votes in Ontario, and the urban areas in Canada. Without their support, it
is going to be very hard for Harper to become a national leader.
This is going to be a big handicap for the new Conservative leader,
especially if you add to the fact Mr. Harperıs difficulties to be accepted
in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, where the popularity of Belinda Stronach has
been more evident.
He can be sure that the Liberals, or the Paul Martin Liberals, will
be very active amongst minorities in the upcoming days. It will be a serious
mistake for Harper to concede defeat in this sector and try to win the
election with his traditional support. If he will do so, his Rubicon will
again be the boundaries of Manitoba. In fact, it might the boundaries of
Alberta: Jack Layton has significantly increased the cooperation with the
provincial NDP of Saskatchewan and Manitoba which not only threatens the
Liberals, but also the new Conservatives.
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