|
|Monday November 10, 2003 |
BACK |
NEXT
THE BALLAD OF JACK AND DENNIS
"Jack, I believe we have to go at it,"
said Dennis.
"No problem Dennis, I’m ready," answered Jack.
Jack is the leader of the federal NDP, Jack
Layton, and Dennis, of course, is the Liberal MP for Toronto-Danforth, Ont.
The conversation between the two popular politicians took place a couple weeks
ago in a Toronto Queen Street East pub, smack dab in the middle of the riding.
Despite the looming fight, the relationship
between Mills and Layton is a very good one, and, if Mills decides to run,
it’s going to be one of the most interesting races to watch in the next
federal election. It’s interesting not only because the two individuals
involved are popular or that the possibility of a showdown between two of the
most skilled politicians who know how to master the media would be exciting;
the race in Toronto-Danforth will have a profound effect on the outcome of the
national campaign.
Most of the media talk about the impact on
the Liberal Party from the possible reunion of the Canadian right. There is no
doubt that many ridings, especially in Ontario, will be affected by the
merger, and the only organization who can suffer potential loss will be the
Liberal Party. However, while the success of the Liberals in the last decade
has been favoured by the Conservative Diaspora, the three back-to-back
electoral successes have been greatly, and quietly, sustained by the moribund
NDP.
Since Ed Broadbent’s departure, and the
collapse of the Soviet Empire, the Canadian left has been adrift and the weak
leadership of Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa McDonough can only partially justify
the debacle. However, regardless of the causes, the Liberals have had a free
ride because of the litigious right and also because of the acephalous left.
It is not a coincidence that the Liberal fortunes increased in the last decade
at the same time when the NDP vote collapsed. In 1984, under the leadership of
Ed Broadbent, they had 30 seats and 18 per cent of the popular vote.
In 1988, the Broadbent band went up to 43
seats and 20.4 per cent of the popular vote. The vote and the number of NDP
MPs collapsed in 1993 and in all subsequent elections. In 1997, the popular
vote shrank to 1,434,509 (in 1988 it was 2,661,745) and the seats dropped to
21. The bleeding continued in the 2000 elections: the popular vote dropped to
8.5 per cent and the NDP got 1,093,868 votes and elected only 13 members in
the House. Of course, those numbers don’t tell the whole story. In fact, the
increase of the NDP members is not the only effect of the popularity of the
Canadian left-wing political organization with voters.
Even in ridings where they have no hope of
winning, the strength of the NDP can influence the outcome of races between
Liberal and right-wing candidates. Those effects were clearly felt in the last
spring federal byelection in Ontario in which the Conservative candidate
defeated the Liberal representative and the NDP increased its share. And now,
back to Jack and Dennis.
It is an accepted reality that the popularity
of the leader of the political party will be responsible for the 80-90 per
cent of the results in every electoral riding. The popularity of the MP will
only fill the rest.
Paul Martin is popular compared to Jean
Chrétien; but the comparison is misleading: we have to compare Paul Martin
today, with Jean Chrétien in 1993, 1997 and even during the 2000 election.
Martin’s popularity cannot have a more positive effect than the popularity of
the Liberal leader’s in the last three elections. The only variable can be the
popularity of other leaders. In other words, the leader has no space for
growth; in fact they can only go down from previous elections; contrary to the
other political organizations that have nothing to lose and a lot to gain from
the changes. So put on hold the outcome of the unite-the-right tele-novela,
and take a look at the left.
The fight many are talking about is between
Dennis Mills and Jack Layton and in reality it’s a fight between Layton and
Martin. The NDP leader is very aggressive, and you need only to take a look at
his website in order to get an idea of what’s about to come during the next
federal election. Mills is the most important and effective tool Martin has in
his hands to stop, or at least relegate, Layton within the boundaries of
Toronto-Danforth.
With Mills in the race, Layton has to spend a
lot of time in his backyard in order to win his seat. Everyone knows that
Mills has one of most effective networks in the ridings and is a master in
using the internet for political purposes. He is the best candidate to take on
Layton in Toronto-Danforth and on the web.
It is worthy to remember that Mills was able
to beat the odds, as a rookie with no track record in 1988, right in the midst
of the NDP growth and with Broadbent still as a leader. Without Mills, Layton
has a better chance of increasing his popularity at the expense of Paul Martin
all over the country. The 172 seats in the last election, were also won by the
Liberals because the NDP of Alexa McDonough was at 8.5 per cent of the popular
vote. Layton, at least for now, is not Ed Broadbent, but an increase of the
popular vote of five to six per cent will have a significant effect in many
Liberal ridings throughout the country: especially in Toronto, the Prairies
and the urban areas.
And, of course, there is the wild card of the
unite-card-movement. That’s why the fight in Toronto-Danforth is very
important. Will Dennis Mills carry the Liberal flag for the fifth time?
"Jack, my leader asked me to carry on for one
more time" Mills told Layton in the pub.
"I’m ready for you and your leader" was the answer from the NDP leader.
I’m not convinced that Mills will run again,
however, if I'm wrong on this account, I am positively sure to say that the
ballad of Jack and Dennis, is something to enjoy and monitor very closely in
the future months. |
