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|Monday October 6, 2003 |
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MARTIN'S GENERALS-IN-WAITING
TORONTO - Now that Paul Martin has succeeded
in his quest for the leadership of the Liberal Party, many in the media are
still focusing on who will be part of the Martin government. Ministers,
however, are not necessarily the real powerbrokers in the federal political
structure. In fact, in many cases, they're only the salespeople of a
corporation whose product is manufactured elsewhere. In the structure of
political power, ministers are sandwiched between the leader (and his cohorts
in the Langevin Block) and the so-called regional generals.
Here's a look at the new map of power in
Ottawa under Martin's leadership.
These political generals are not necessarily
ministers, but are expressions of their geographic areas. With Prime Minister
Jean Chrétien, for instance, the most powerful Liberals in
British Columbia
and Ontario were two Senators: Ross
Fitzpatrick in the West Coast and David Smith in
Ontario.
There were also powerful Cabinet ministers, like Herb Dhaliwal in Vancouver
and David Collenette in Toronto, but their roles were in very tight
cooperation with the two "generals."
In Edmonton a very good friend of the Prime
Minister's is former Senator Nick Taylor. In the Niagara Peninsula, it was
Sheila Copps, and in Montreal, Alfonso Gagliano, in Manitoba, Lloyd Axworthy,
in Atlantic Canada, Brian Tobin, David Dingwall or Doug Young. In the past, it
was also the LeBlanc dynasty in New Brunswick that played a very powerful
role, while Lawrence MacAulay was the king in Prince
Edwards
Island. Of course, some of them will try to recycle themselves, with little
success, in the new team. A few years ago, for instance, before the Department
of Public Works boondoggle, it was rumoured that Alfonso Gagliano already had
a deal with Paul Martin to move his organization to the new leader.
But that was then. Now there's a completely
new political scenario and very few, if any, of the old "generals" will be
able to get recycled into the new Liberal leadership.
So, who are Paul Martin's new regional
generals?
According to people close to the new leader,
Paul Martin is trying to stay away, at least for the time-being, from this
important selection. He knows that it will be difficult and messy, in some
instances. However, their names are coming up with some frequency from
quarters close to the new leader.
Moreover, in many cases, the fight has
already started behind the scenes, with candidates trying to catch the
attention of the new boss. And those are the fights that are making Mr. Martin
very nervous. This is true especially in Ontario, where Mr. Martin might end
up with more generals than soldiers.
"One thing is for sure," one organizer told
The Hill Times, "the more noise you make the less chance you have to
succeed."
In Toronto, it's still unclear what role
Senator Smith will play with the Martin government. Very few, however, have
doubts that the new general for the next leader will not be David Collenette.
Also unclear is the role that Allan Rock, if any, will play and some are
wondering if he will even run again.
Much clearer is the situation in Hamilton.
With Sheila Copps presumably in the bad books, there are two names that might
be considered for the position: Stan Keyes and Tony Valeri. In fact, it seems
that the latter has already taken control of the Hamilton-area Liberal
machine.
The Stoney Creek Liberal Riding Association
became extremely active in the last two years, organizing all Hamilton-area
ridings. It is because of the activity of Mr. Valeri's machine that "Copps
failed to win a majority of delegates even in her home district where she is
the regional minister," an insider told The Hill Times. The same source
said that "this represents a significant shift away from the hegemony of Copps
to a new order who I think will be running Hamilton Liberalism for the next
decade."
A by-product of this leadership race both in
Hamilton and elsewhere is that many of these little riding associations, which
typically had a couple of hundred members, suddenly ended up with 2,000
members, most of them dedicated to Mr. Martin and, in the case of Hamilton,
not necessary loyal to the sitting Member in the riding.
For sure, some sitting MPs stand to be ousted
in nominations and Mr. Martin won't likely intervene to protect them.
Mr. Valeri and the Stoney Creek Liberals were
active in East Hamilton, Hamilton
Mountain, Ancaster-Dundas Flamborough,
Aldershot
and Burlington. In each of these ridings, the sitting MP was either identified
with Ms. Copps, or in the case of Liberal MP John Bryden, lukewarm to Mr.
Martin. They were also able to get two delegates in Ms. Copps' own riding.
In total, in Ms. Copps' stronghold, Mr.
Martin got 42 delegates while Ms. Copps won 35. The Valeri group sold over
4,200 memberships across the five ridings and 33 of the Martin delegates
"could legitimately" be attributed to Mr. Valeri's work.
There is still a vacuum in Windsor, a city
particularly close to Paul Martin. There are still problems with minister
Susan Whelan "not only because of the feud between the parents of Paul and
Susan, but also because the behaviour of some advisers who were very close to
John Manley."
In Quebec, there is a vacuum that most likely
will be filled by MP Jaques Saada. According to my information, Mr. Saada is
very well-liked because "he has class, he is a gentleman." He is going to have
a lot of influence with the new administration, more than Denis Coderre and
Martin Cauchon. They are considered "too aggressive and controversial."
Also significant will be the role of Pierre
Pettigrew and Dennis Dawson.
In the British Columbia, there is the name of
Bill Cunningham, president of the Liberal Party in the province, while in
Manitoba there is Reg Alcock. However, the real general for the central and
even western provinces is going to be Ralph Goodale.
"Ralph is going to have a lot of power in
Manitoba, in the Western provinces and all over Canada," one source told
The Hill Times. |
