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the former future ministers in martin's cabinet

by Angelo Persichilli   (Italian version)
THE HILL TIMES

The list of people wanting to be in Paul Martin's Cabinet is slightly shorter than the list of names in the entire federal Liberal caucus. Unfortunately, only a few of them won¹t require the services of a cab driver after the foreseeable Paul Martin victory in November. At the beginning of next year, as Prime Minister Jean Chrétien has so eloquently put it, "there will be a consistent number of former future ministers."

So, while the needs of new leaders may differ when it comes time to prepare for a new executive, the criteria for Cabinet-making are always the same and will force the new Prime Minister to make painful but necessary decisions that will inevitably upset dozens of MPs and supporters.

It's not hard to identify those criteria because all leaders have adopted them since the beginning of the Confederation. A senior Liberal strategist, familiar with all the elements, told The Hill Times last week that "Paul Martin will build a Cabinet based on who can add value like experience, talent and ability will be the key components."

However, before he reaches the stage in which quality and experience apply, there are other elements the new Prime Minister has to take into account, including, geography, gender, ethnicity, the need to present new faces, combined with the one to assure continuity.

Furthermore, when he has satisfied all these requirements, he¹s also going to look at loyalty and trust.
Lastly, the new PM is going to look in the list of survivors for talent and experience.

Considering the quantity of support Martin can enjoy, it won¹t be hard for him to find talent and experience even within the names of the MPs who will hit the short-list. Of course, if someone is a rocket scientist or a Nobel Prize-winner for medicine who has a cure for the cancer, he or she will be there regardless of all the previous considerations.

Not being in the list of Paul Martin's supporters such a person, all the aspirants will go through the aforementioned process. Geography: Currently, there are 39 ministers in the federal Cabinet, including 18 from Ontario, eight from Québec, three from British Columbia, two each from Alberta and Manitoba, and one each from Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan and the N.W.T.

Martin has the support of 74 MPs from Ontario, 26 from Québec, five each from British Columbia and Manitoba, four from Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, three from P.E.I., two from Alberta and one each from Saskatchewan, N.W.T.and Yukon. Comparing the numbers of MPs supporting Martin from each province and the number of the ministers who will most likely be in the Cabinet along geographical lines, you can get an idea of who has potential to be in Cabinet and who doesn't.

And then there¹s gender, ethnicity and the need to present new faces. Of course, this aspect will be more important after the general election with the infusion of new names like Frank McKenna, Jean Lapierre, Ujjal Dosanjh and businessman Mike Phelps from B.C., just to name a few.

Gender: At the present time, there are there are 10 women in Chrétien's 39-member Cabinet, including Sharon Carstairs, leader of the government in the Senate. Mr. Martin has, at least, to match that number. In the caucus, there are 28 women MPs supporting Martin. Most of them are from Ontario (14), seven are from Quebec, two from B.C. and one each from Manitoba, Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and N.W.T.

Ethnicity: This is another important aspect of the composition of a new government. It is touchy and complicated. There are MPs of many origins like Greek, Lebanese, German, Sikh, Chinese and Italian. There are 20 MPs of Italian origin who support Martin. The unofficial rule has been, up to now, to have one minister of Italian origin, with the possibility of two: one from Ontario, one from Québec. The question is: will Martin keep the same criteria or he will appoint people, as many would like to, regardless of their ethnicity? If the rule stands, there are going to be many disappointed faces amongst the Italian Canadian contingent.

In fact, almost all of them, with the exception of two, are supporting Martin. If the new leader disregards the ethnicity and considers only the loyalty, "the first Martin's Cabinet will have more ministers of Italian origin then Mr. Berlusconi's," one Liberal strategist told me. However, after having addressed the issue of geography, gender and ethnicity, the next Prime Minister will take into consideration loyalty and trust.

Loyalty: In the present caucus there are only six MPs who have supported Paul Martin since 1988: they are Joe Fontana, Joe McGuire, Maurizio Bevilacqua, Joe Volpe, Albina Guarnieri and Joe Comuzzi. There are others, like Ralph Goodale, who have supported Martin since the beginning, but were in the House only later. Some have supported Jean Chrétien in the 1990 convention but switched later to Martin because not appointed to the Cabinet or because dumped, and others have moved to Martin to protect the position they already have in the Jean Chrétien's executive. Of course, the degree of loyalty changes according to the supporter "and Martin has been around long enough to know who is sincere and who has made the changes only for political opportunism," said the Liberal strategist.

Trust: Being loyal to a leader doesn't necessarily mean that the person can be trusted. Being in Cabinet requires experience, team spirit and, often, the capacity to swallow pride and just follow orders. Furthermore, a minister must be cool-headed, a person that thinks first before opening his/her mouth. It is established that those creating controversy, themselves or instigating others from behind the scene, are not welcome by any leader.

Who are the people that might be off the list because of this characteristic? Everyone has ideas, but only one person knows who they are and that¹s Paul Martin.

Ability and experience: Amongst those who will pass through the scrutiny of geography, gender, ethnicity, trust and loyalty, the new Prime Minister will look at the candidate¹s capacity. "Whether an MP has been a
backbencher, Parliamentary secretary, chair of a committee or Cabinet minister, Martin has been keeping an eye on them," an insider told The Hill Times. "The bottom line," he said, "is if you have been an ineffective backbencher, you don't all of sudden, transform yourself into an effective minister."

"Paul Martin will focus on winning a large majority government: It is an absolute necessity. He will want to have the freedom," said the strategist, "to pick his best possible team without being worried about disgruntled former future Cabinet ministers."

Another Liberal insider said that "one must remember that the same 1990 Chrétien's leadership campaign loyalists¹ who worked very hard against Paul Martin, are the same people who now claim to be Martin's loyalists and have been aggressively trying to push Prime Minister Jean Chrétien out."

The huge majority of MPs are aware of those unofficial rules and they know what's going to happen after November 2003: only a few are trying hard to put themselves in front of the pack resorting to many tricks and gimmicks. We heard, for in stance, that there are some who believe that Mr. Martin will not dare to keep them out "because cannot afford to face the reaction." Those MPs, of course, have realized that their qualifications do not mach the criteria for being appointed to the cabinet and resort to veiled threats. The harsh reality is that those unofficial rules have been followed for centuries and will not be changed by those folkloristic statements.

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